Biden leads Trump by 15% in new ABC Poll (No rest, please)

[Azathoth]

19. Not always, nor do they always stay home for midterms

Clinton never won an actual majority of the popular vote and he benefited from third-party candidates. Bush won twice (yes he lost the popular vote in 2000, but the margin was very slim). Trump lost the popular vote, but only because the Democratic base came out against him in the deepest blue states. Our base in competitive states during presidential elections isn't always what polls suggest it should be.

Conversely, Dems turned out heavily in 2006 and 2018. So it's not like our side doesn't understand the concept of voting during midterms.

I'm not saying Trump is going to win. All I'm saying is that for most of my adult life, Dems overperform among registered voters in every election cycle. And I suspect it's going to be even worse this year because of the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon. (I don't have hard data to prove that, just anecdotal evidence, but after awhile you start to see patterns in your personal interactions.)

And of course modern Dems have *never* won crushing victories like Reagan did. Obama was the closest we've come, and he won solid but not overwhelming majorities (even with Republicans carrying the burden of having caused the greatest recession since the Great Depression, McCain still got 46% and carried red states comfortably).

The GOP have been able to turn themselves into a death cult specifically because their voters vote reliably and constantly. Our voters vote occasionally.