Nate Silver: "I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed"

[Awsi Dooger]

40. Other than approval rating, there is no status quo during Trump

I think that's what Nate is saying. Trump is so chaotic and opinionated that there are guaranteed to be numerous huge events and stories between now and November. Shifts both ways. Unlike past presidents you can't identify one story and assign permanence.

Coronavirus should be the exception and has been the exception. Those commercials are going to be devastating, when they show Trump calling it a hoax and 15 down to zero, etc. If a Democratic president had said that type of thing Republicans would be using it non-stop, even as the death toll mounts. We have stayed away from it but at some point the gloves have to come off.

Trump's only advantage is the electoral college, and it's a far greater advantage than many are willing to acknowledge. He really only has to flip Wisconsin and Florida, then take his chances on normalcy elsewhere. States like Texas, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina are far less likely for Biden than polling suggests. Statewide presidential results are totally dictated by ideology, whether anyone wants to accept it or not. For example, the Democrat is 59-0 since 2004 in states exit polling 32% conservatives or fewer. The Republican is 55-0 since 2004 in states exit polling 38% conservatives or higher. Only states between 33% and 37% have been in play. The Democrat is a modest 26-21 in those states. We took Michigan and Wisconsin for granted in 2016 despite both at 35% conservatives in 2012. It is a classic example of what I have always insisted, that it is moronic to rely on preference polling alone. If Hillary had polled ideology alone she would have been campaigning in the proper states while ignoring the stupid ones like North Carolina and its 43% conservatives.

Texas was 44% conservatives in 2016. Georgia was 41%. Arizona was 41%. North Carolina was 43%. As I mentioned, no Democrat recently has won any state recording 38% or above in those categories. Those states would have to plunge in percentage of self-identified conservatives merely for Biden to have a change to win them by narrowest margin, like Obama pulling out Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 by less than 45,000 votes total.

There is no such thing as a Biden lead by 2+ points in any of those states. That can be laughed out of the room right now.