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DeminPennswoods

(17,564 posts)

53. Opinions on Trump are nearly baked in at this point

Sun Jul 26, 2020, 03:42 PM

Jul 2020

Even if there is a vaccine before Nov, no one is forgetting how disorganized and incompetent Trump and his administration have been. Plenty of people are still going to be unemployed or underemployed. They're going to remember who caused their economic pain.

This is not 2016 where Trump was looked at as a "successful businessman" and many people despised Hillary and refused to vote for her. There were plenty of voters willing to give Trump a try. Many of these "Trump try-ers" now have buyers remorse. That's why you see self-reported party affiliation in olls shifting away from R to Indy and Dem.

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Nate Silver: "I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed" [View all] applegrove Jul 2020 OP

A Covid turnaround by the fall could make the election more competitive, empedocles Jul 2020 #1

What turnaround will there be? 250,000 deaths instead of the 150,000 now? brush Jul 2020 #8

trump could do everything right for the next 100 days (which won't happen) and panader0 Jul 2020 #16

Yep. I can't imagine the nation rewarding another four years to such an... brush Jul 2020 #20

There will be no 'turnaround.". The dead will still be dead. yellowcanine Jul 2020 #18

Uhuh. And at some point hopes will be blasted that a vaccine Hortensis Jul 2020 #22

I don't doubt it either. I never thought he would win last time. idziak4ever1234 Jul 2020 #2

Sealed 100% probability Trump loses. No , he doesn't have a 100% chance of losing. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2020 #3

The strawman is Trump has no chance, no one is saying that. Biden could burn his VP alive on ... uponit7771 Jul 2020 #41

Neither do I. HotTeaBag Jul 2020 #4

It's Nate's job to assign a probability. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2020 #6

Unless you're talking about the NY Jets. n/t Yavin4 Jul 2020 #23

The Jets once erased a three touchdown deficit to the Dolphins in the 4th quarter. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2020 #31

It won't bring the dead back to life. It won't Phoenix61 Jul 2020 #5

Yea, so many people are going to change their minds in the next three months. shockey80 Jul 2020 #7

Post your data please! nt USALiberal Jul 2020 #25

Please Remember, Nate Is A Race Horse Guy! ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #9

Nate's job is to assign probabilities. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2020 #11

Can't Disagree ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #33

Nope, he posts odds based on data. Math! Get it? nt USALiberal Jul 2020 #28

Dismissed! ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #29

LOL, send ink to your analysis! Thanks! nt USALiberal Jul 2020 #36

He is speculating JonLP24 Jul 2020 #32

Well, biases can affect analysis, but.... Happy Hoosier Jul 2020 #34

That's Not What I Said ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #37

Of course, but... Happy Hoosier Jul 2020 #44

There is no data that explains Trump getting away with being an asshole and letting the virus spread uponit7771 Jul 2020 #39

It is not zipplewrath Jul 2020 #10

I'm not so sure American voters are ready to forget or let by-gones be by-gones Grammy23 Jul 2020 #12

+1, ... and if they are its the media's fault for not highlighting ***HOURLY*** how Trump got us in uponit7771 Jul 2020 #38

Nate - tbat would require competence... lame54 Jul 2020 #13

Silver is right. CrispyQ Jul 2020 #14

Translation: He's blaming his crappy modeling on the uncertain nature of the universe... tandem5 Jul 2020 #15

Why we he say anything different? beachbumbob Jul 2020 #17

Reading these threads is like sarisataka Jul 2020 #19

I would love a covid turnaround marlakay Jul 2020 #21

The moment in 2016 i thought Trump could win. BlueNIndiana Jul 2020 #27

I live in red city in Oregon marlakay Jul 2020 #56

Translation: Keep paying me to appear on the TeeVee. Horserace. Sell ads. PSPS Jul 2020 #24

LOL, ok! nt USALiberal Jul 2020 #26

This election has a long way to go rockfordfile Jul 2020 #30

If that happens then the media in the country has failed its citizens again big time. Nate "forgets" uponit7771 Jul 2020 #35

Other than approval rating, there is no status quo during Trump Awsi Dooger Jul 2020 #40

Arizona is probably easier to flip than Wisconsin JonLP24 Jul 2020 #46

I agree Arizona is in flux Awsi Dooger Jul 2020 #57

As I've said before, one October Surprise would be DT announcing a vaccine ... Hekate Jul 2020 #42

They will announce a new stimulus package, they will lie, cheat and steal Baltimike Jul 2020 #43

Or imagine that.... Happy Hoosier Jul 2020 #45

The Republican side already stormed the Michigan capital with guns and they weren't brutalized JonLP24 Jul 2020 #47

You misunderstand me... Happy Hoosier Jul 2020 #48

I understand JonLP24 Jul 2020 #51

I think it's a pretty volatile situation.... Happy Hoosier Jul 2020 #52

Or just Cheating JI7 Jul 2020 #49

GOTV treestar Jul 2020 #50

Opinions on Trump are nearly baked in at this point DeminPennswoods Jul 2020 #53

When we meet someone that is on the fence or MAY but are not sure that they will vote Blue_true Jul 2020 #54

Me either. We have to GOTV in the midst of a pandemic. ooky Jul 2020 #55