Nate Silver: "I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed"

[Awsi Dooger]

57. I agree Arizona is in flux

Biden may lead there, for the variables you mentioned. The demographics are changing so dramatically that the percentage of self-identified liberals soared from 19% in 2012 to 27% in 2016. I believe that is the largest one-cycle jump since I started following this in 1992. I'd have to check. I think California rose 7% in one cycle.

Given older voters such a high percentage in Arizona there will be Trump losses from 2016 due to Silent Generation mortality. That's another factor in Biden's favor.

However, Arizona is 15% Hispanics. As I've emphasized for years, Hispanics have unusual loyalty to a presidential incumbent, no matter if it makes any sense at all in regard to issues. The 2020 Democratic nominee was always going to fare strangely poorly with Hispanics, regardless who that nominee was. I've posted that here and elsewhere countless times since 2016. I've had to laugh recently when one analyst after another is scrambling to explain Biden's comparatively poor percentages with Hispanics. It is another classic case of being oblivious to the big picture while desperately needing thousands of variables within consideration instead of relying on one significant variable.

I'm not sure how the polls are treating Hispanics state to state. If they are assigning typical percentage to a Democrat it will be too high.

Same thing in Nevada with 18% Hispanics in the electorate. If there is any state were are in danger of taking for granted it is Nevada. There are key two factors there: No ideological advantage at all...36% conservatives to 25% liberals in 2016. And with so many Hispanics in the electorate there figures to be a shift to Trump that we may not anticipate. Nevada should be treated as close to a 50/50 state in 2020 but I'm convinced we are overconfident like midwest 2016.