One thing that could change this year is that if it looks as if President Obama is going

[Drunken Irishman]

3. It also could keep Republican voters home...

If they think Romney is going to lose, they just might not be motivated to go to the polls. They're already unenthusiastic about him, add the potential of a loss, which is looking more and more likely the closer we get to the election, and Republicans could just say, "fuck it" and stay home.

This isn't like '08 where many held their nose and voted because of Palin. Ryan might be their guy, but there is no evidence he engaged their supporters at the level Palin did. Remember, Palin was drawing crowds that rivaled Obama in '08 (including 60,000 in Florida). Ryan's crowds are pathetic in comparison.

It's entirely possible these voters just don't vote in November ... especially the evangelicals.

Just hating Obama might not be enough.