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LincolnRossiter

(560 posts)

8. I think Biden as a 2:1 favorite under current conditions is about right.

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Original post)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 01:54 PM

Aug 2020

Presumably you have some data that you want to share that suggests to you that this isn’t right....

I’ll give you a quick analytical head start, though. Silver’s overall projection is very heavily (almost entirely) weighted toward the final results in the electoral college vote—not the popular vote spread. Which sort of makes sense when you consider that that’s how we elect the president.

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538 rating drops Biden to 69% chance [View all] jorgevlorgan Aug 2020 OP

Clickety clicks for the guy who never actually says anything BannonsLiver Aug 2020 #1

That is only because of the amount of days remaining SCliberal91294 Aug 2020 #2

And the Economist gives Biden a 90% chance peggysue2 Aug 2020 #3

90% is quite likely. ananda Aug 2020 #16

I agree! peggysue2 Aug 2020 #32

Yes, yes, I WANT A CRUSHING, A CRUSHING, no doubt about it. No possibility a kennedy Aug 2020 #40

Because he's not... brooklynite Aug 2020 #4

538 average is actually 8.3 jorgevlorgan Aug 2020 #20

By the end of next week, he'll be back up Javaman Aug 2020 #5

Forget the polls, just get out the vote, whether through call bankin or knocking on doors still_one Aug 2020 #6

After 2016, I will never in a million years trust anything the polls say. Initech Aug 2020 #7

National polls were pretty much on the money budkin Aug 2020 #10

I think Biden as a 2:1 favorite under current conditions is about right. LincolnRossiter Aug 2020 #8

I'd buy there's a 3 in 10 chance Trump wins qazplm135 Aug 2020 #9

Your first sentence is perfectly accurate Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #12

"Tightening" SCliberal91294 Aug 2020 #13

I think they will, we will see qazplm135 Aug 2020 #15

Unemployment Rate SCliberal91294 Aug 2020 #21

the one thing Trump seems to have is insane levels of good luck qazplm135 Aug 2020 #24

Here are the projections, please click on forecast SCliberal91294 Aug 2020 #27

projections are projections qazplm135 Aug 2020 #31

A million people losing jobs every week...so the economy sucks and will only worsen. Demsrule86 Aug 2020 #42

That's the same as 2016 jorgevlorgan Aug 2020 #22

it shouldn't be qazplm135 Aug 2020 #26

Yep jorgevlorgan Aug 2020 #28

it probably sucks for the either side too qazplm135 Aug 2020 #30

Looks like it's the battleground polls that have tightened which caused this result budkin Aug 2020 #11

North Carolina had 43% conservatives in 2016 exit poll Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #23

Yet Obama won it qazplm135 Aug 2020 #29

Actually Biden is leading there in the average of polls jorgevlorgan Aug 2020 #37

leading within the margin of error qazplm135 Aug 2020 #38

+1000 Celerity Aug 2020 #41

Do these models take into account 2020-specific exogenous shocks? Celerity Aug 2020 #14

Too many are happy to accept 1000 dying a day as the new normal. They think Trump is strong on the Doodley Aug 2020 #17

A big lead nationally means nothing PTWB Aug 2020 #18

+1 uponit7771 Aug 2020 #25

A big lead absolutely means something. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #34

Biden could win the popular vote by 20m and still lose the election PTWB Aug 2020 #39

It's just an artifact of the model BGBD Aug 2020 #19

We need to start seeing more of Joe and Kamala . Constant TV appearances and such. octoberlib Aug 2020 #33

Good. We need a reminder that this thing is far from over. GOTV and call your Squinch Aug 2020 #35

Preparing you for the fix. RhodeIslandOne Aug 2020 #36