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DemocratSinceBirth

(101,879 posts)

34. Wasn't Hillary like -800 on the day of the election?

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:50 PM

Aug 2020

And didn't an offshore oddsmaker pay out Clinton bets weeks in advance because they believed her victory was a foregone conclusion.

Betting markets can be irrational. They made an MMA fighter -400 against one of the all time great pound for pound fighters in a boxing match. In a rational market he would have been -4000.

I have a simple two variable model which I borrowed from Allan Abramowitz. Trump's percentage of the vote is the dependent variable and the independent variables are his approval rating on election day and his approval rating for his handling of the CoronaVirus.

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Biden is tanking in the betting markets. [View all] Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 OP

they just had a convention bigtree Aug 2020 #1

Also for PtedictIt you have RNC markets paying out, and pro Trump money being rolled over Amishman Aug 2020 #19

What's the motivation in posting this here? n/t Judi Lynn Aug 2020 #2

the two top posts on the thread just now... bigtree Aug 2020 #4

Same as the motive when I posted he had surged a few weeks ago. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #24

Betting going to determine this? vercetti2021 Aug 2020 #3

Donrsife is out with polls already for today showing Biden above double digits. RDANGELO Aug 2020 #5

A six point drop is "tanking"? blogslut Aug 2020 #6

Yes. Biden went from +21 to +8 in a matter of days. That's pretty significant. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #23

60 to 54 is not much of anything Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #33

Wasn't Hillary like -800 on the day of the election? DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2020 #34

Well, to be blunt, Hillary did win. triron Aug 2020 #40

Lol, what?? PTWB Aug 2020 #43

The MMA fighter had a boxing style JonLP24 Aug 2020 #44

Exactly, it's the conventional wisdom of white guys. radius777 Aug 2020 #48

They're factoring in that Trump is a Cult Leader Tiger8 Aug 2020 #7

Russian money changing the odds? MacKasey Aug 2020 #8

Yup. Trump's entire convention focus was the protesting, R B Garr Aug 2020 #9

I seem to remember a post here stating Trump supporters were putting a lot of cash shrike3 Aug 2020 #10

Republicans - and especially Trump - juice EVERYTHING for perception purposes. NCDem47 Aug 2020 #13

Thanks, I was wondering about that. shrike3 Aug 2020 #30

Your "concern" is noted. LW1977 Aug 2020 #11

Thank you for noting it. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #25

Michael Moore, is that you? PubliusEnigma Aug 2020 #12

Just saw his post today that all the MI marlakay Aug 2020 #17

No. One poll from MI has Trump up two & it's a GOP pollster. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #27

Mike needs to stop the fear stuff then marlakay Aug 2020 #32

Biden will not lose MI or PA. radius777 Aug 2020 #49

A real Democrat knows how to spell malarkey. PubliusEnigma Aug 2020 #54

If you're not concerned oswaldactedalone Aug 2020 #14

Police budgets have exploded since the 70s JonLP24 Aug 2020 #45

PUtin's dumping a bunch of money to depress Biden's favorability. lark Aug 2020 #15

I have been following the betting lines since last year Apollo Zeus Aug 2020 #16

I don't know anything about advertising lingo but... jcgoldie Aug 2020 #18

What are the 3 and 4-word versions of the Dem platform? Apollo Zeus Aug 2020 #20

Good points but your premise is wrong. grantcart Aug 2020 #29

"turn out" is closing the deal Apollo Zeus Aug 2020 #31

I do agree Dems have a messaging problem cally Aug 2020 #39

What about these? misanthrope Aug 2020 #41

GOP playbook same as always: exploit white fear. radius777 Aug 2020 #50

And Ronda Rousey was supposed to smash Holly Holm as per betting lines obamanut2012 Aug 2020 #21

Biden tanked fairly often in the betting markets during the primary race, too. The betting highplainsdem Aug 2020 #22

Yes the betting markets could be wrong. Drunken Irishman Aug 2020 #26

He tanked when he was tanking JonLP24 Aug 2020 #47

One heavy better $200,000 type bets can shift the point margin. sarcasmo Aug 2020 #28

... demmiblue Aug 2020 #35

Them that haven't lost all their money in bitcoin banking scams and dark markets. hunter Aug 2020 #36

I suspect your average bettor is a fifty year old white guy. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2020 #37

They factor in Trump fraud budkin Aug 2020 #38

Excellent point n/t moonscape Aug 2020 #42

I watched a video explaining this. Bettors are short selling Trump. WonderGrunion Aug 2020 #46

Post on the Fox News stories on their website! tell your friends! foxtruth Aug 2020 #51

welcome to DU Kali Aug 2020 #52

Here's how gambling of this sort works Willto Aug 2020 #53