Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
14. The 90/10 categories are often difficult to capture in polling
Mon Aug 31, 2020, 05:01 PM
Aug 2020

I have noted that for decades. The numbers are so small that all it takes is an odd sampling to throw things out of whack. If you look at crosstabs sometimes it can literally be 10 people skewing things, like a Hispanic sampling in some state that is only 6% Hispanic and among a sample of 1000 voters the Hispanics are 30-30 instead of a more logical 40-20. Now it's 50% instead of 67% and everybody freaks out wondering how Hispanics can be 50-50.

I always ignore the partisan and Africian-American polling percentage and assign the standard 90/10. Trump received 8% on the black vote according to the 2016 national exit poll, and likewise 8% of the Democratic vote

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

The black vote in that poll is bs JI7 Aug 2020 #1
Thanks for your detailed response! nt USALiberal Aug 2020 #3
Not to be picky, but this is the THIRD thread on this poll so far... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #2
My point is that one poll and a national one at that is meaningless in a country octoberlib Aug 2020 #5
There's absolutely something off about that poll. bearsfootball516 Aug 2020 #4
This pollster is skeptical of Emerson's methods octoberlib Aug 2020 #7
For those who don't know it... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #12
During the last briefing from The Lincoln Project ..... calguy Aug 2020 #10
Hard to believe the two largest minority groups would be that high for him FBaggins Aug 2020 #6
Also shows Trump getting 19% of the Democratic vote Yavin4 Aug 2020 #8
The 90/10 categories are often difficult to capture in polling Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #14
We handed Trump the gift of a lifetime oswaldactedalone Aug 2020 #9
This poll is flawed JonLP24 Aug 2020 #18
Yup!! Royally effed that one up. NM Grins Aug 2020 #19
The thing I find unusual about that poll... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #11
Great point. As far as I know, it's never happened. octoberlib Aug 2020 #16
I think they report two different numbers FBaggins Aug 2020 #20
Emerson has been an outlier this cycle, radius777 Aug 2020 #13
Focusing on individual poll results is a sure way to drive yourself insane VMA131Marine Aug 2020 #15
We all just need to vote and stop stressing out over every poll. It's hard , though. octoberlib Aug 2020 #17
I can't believe there's a single person bamagal62 Aug 2020 #21
In 2012, Obama's top election numbers guru told a closed group of us DFW Aug 2020 #22
Thanks for this post! Good to hear. octoberlib Aug 2020 #23
This was in JULY, mind you DFW Aug 2020 #24
Thanks. It's great to hear someone who has seen it from the inside. Baitball Blogger Aug 2020 #26
Obama won by 3.9% in 2012 Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #25
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»There's a new Emerson pol...»Reply #14