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Thekaspervote

(35,816 posts)
17. No 538 is not doing non biased polling
Mon Aug 31, 2020, 10:59 PM
Aug 2020

increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor, at some very basic level, Silver does not actually know what a poll is. He is not alone in this; a fair portion of the country’s political punditry and opinion-making class is equally misinformed. In their conception, polls of opinion and sentiment represent not a snapshot of the present as informed by the past, but rather a hazy but prescient view into the future; not a measurement, but a prediction. “[Y]ou can actually write down what will happen in the future, with as much confidence as you write down the history of the past. Because it’s science!” This is why so much media discourse around polling emphasizes a framework that paints polls of present attitudes as a form of absolute constraint on where sentiment will go.


https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

Silver is still trying to recover from his botched dem primary polls when it was statistically shown that sanders vote share had dropped by 25% from 16 and their was no youth vote. All this after just 2 caucus nights silver declared Biden was done for, but just wasn’t willing to accept it

The Emerson poll until recently had a c- rating on 538, but suddenly and without any reason gave them an A- rating, despite Emerson having done nothing to improve their methodology

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Convention Bump? ogsball Aug 2020 #1
His supporters crave white supremacy, RiverbendsJoe Aug 2020 #2
I saw some eyebrow raising polls I do not believe from Emerson Jarqui Aug 2020 #3
Trump's favorability & perceptions of COVID-19 response stagnate... Locutusofborg Aug 2020 #4
Nixon 1968 Frasier Balzov Aug 2020 #5
The "widespread civil unrest" now is nothing compared to what was going on then... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #9
Also, Nixon was the challenger. The riots hurt the incumbent because they were in charge. NYC Liberal Aug 2020 #11
LBJ was the incumbent and decided not to run MichMan Aug 2020 #12
The incumbent party. Humphrey was LBJ's VP. NYC Liberal Aug 2020 #21
Look at the polls they list... regnaD kciN Aug 2020 #6
Up until recently our so called friends over at 538 had the Emerson poll rated at C- Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #14
He succeeds in changing the debate from Covid to riots question everything Aug 2020 #7
I don't see anything to freak out about, they always tighten up close to the election. The Economist doc03 Aug 2020 #8
Approval numbers are bullshit. Give me actual polls who someone will vote for, especially still_one Aug 2020 #10
Stop paying attention to 538..they are no longer doing non biased polling Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #13
Their model creates averages weighting the polls that come in jorgevlorgan Aug 2020 #16
No 538 is not doing non biased polling Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #17
What I am seeing in places like 538 this time. that I don't think was that prevalent in 2016 still_one Aug 2020 #19
It's become rare that an incumbent loses Polybius Aug 2020 #15
See post #13 Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #18
Post 13 doesn't appear to understand Locutusofborg Sep 2020 #24
Trump will not be able to move outside of his base significantly. The Democrats on the other hand still_one Aug 2020 #20
The Emerson poll skewing that was half landlines and half an online panel, no cell phones. highplainsdem Aug 2020 #22
This message was self-deleted by its author highplainsdem Aug 2020 #23
Search DU for the Emerson poll thread from today budkin Sep 2020 #25
Talk with one of your neighbors today. nt greyl Sep 2020 #26
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