'Market bulls and bears are having trouble as 'unlimited' Fed support short circuits models' - CNBC

[Awsi Dooger]

25. I've spent a lot of time looking at those models

Even tinkered with my own homemade attempts on Excel, because it's not all that dissimilar to what I've long done with sports results. There have been several times when the models were correct and I should have reacted, like maybe 5 years ago when I was overweight on biotech stocks and the models said get out but I did not. My XBI stake really plummeted.

But finally I decided to step back and chart things. I kept a file of the models and what they were saying, regarding the stocks I already owned and others I was considering. It was hit and miss all over the place. After 8 months I'd seen enough and quit updating the file. Buy and hold was faring at least as well if not better than reacting to everything.

In sports I know the variables and can adjust the model, if let's say the NFL becomes more pass happy, which occurred following 2004. In business I don't know enough or care enough to understand why some company or some sector deviated from model expectation. And that reality isn't going to change.

I knew enough to buy Apple a long time ago because I trusted Steve Job's brilliance. That's why I've had this avatar since 2003. The rest of this stuff may be a blur but I went 1-0 when it mattered.