General Discussion

pat_k

(13,355 posts)

79. Great to hear.

Fri Sep 18, 2020, 06:51 PM

Sep 2020

Last edited Fri Sep 18, 2020, 07:28 PM - Edit history (1)

Hopefully, other states with a Democratic secretary of state of state will help reduce disenfranchisement.

Looks like the states to monitor for the most systematic voter suppression are AZ, FL, and GA (Republican SOS). See below.

I remain distrustful of any lead that's under 7 points. Between the typical 3 point margin of error and Republican systematic and individual (not coordinated) malfeasance, I think these states are stealable.

Whether or not that's true, overconfidence suppresses turnout (doesn't matter if I vote, Biden is way ahead). We need to be cautiously optimistic and recognize that polls don't take into account voter suppression (and "the other side" has gotten very good at it over the past couple decades).

We are unlikely to overcome even small Trump leads in Republican controlled states when voter suppression is factored in.

States by Party control. Numbers from averages on fivethirtyeight

On Edit -- the following party assignment of SOS's from Ballotpedia is apparently out of date -- apologies.

NC Biden +1.2 - Split SOS=D
GA Biden +1.4 - R
FL Biden +2.2 - R
AZ Biden +4.8 - R
PA Biden +4.9 - Split SOS=D
NV Biden +5.5 - D
WI Biden +6.7 - Split SOS=D
NH Biden +6.7 - Split SOS=D
MI Biden +7.7 - Split SOS=D
MN Biden +8.8 - Split SOS=D

IA Trump +1.8 - R
OH Trump +1.5 - R
GA Trump +1.4 - R
TX Trump +1.2 -R
AK Trump * - R
AR Trump * R

* not enough polls for fivethirtyeight averaging

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We shouldn't have fallen for mail in voting [View all] SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 OP

I vote by mail every election. I didn't fall for anything. SoonerPride Sep 2020 #1

Where though? SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #3

+++ still_one Sep 2020 #26

He was going to discredit the election if he lost, Miguelito Loveless Sep 2020 #2

Maybe but this made it easy for him. SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #5

He's allowed to believe his own bs. You shouldn't be as gullible. stopbush Sep 2020 #10

I am not gullible. SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #23

Nope. Miguelito Loveless Sep 2020 #14

Only with stupid people, who will believe it's rigged if he loses regardless Clash City Rocker Sep 2020 #19

Easy fr him? What the fuck are you talking about. SoonerPride Sep 2020 #30

This Bettie Sep 2020 #66

No. madaboutharry Sep 2020 #4

"Fallen for it"? Did you see the tsunami of early in-person voters, lined bullwinkle428 Sep 2020 #6

Right! SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #8

Almost all states have a fairly long early voting period Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #33

This message was self-deleted by its author bamagal62 Sep 2020 #51

the states that have been doing it for years and years have had no issues.. samnsara Sep 2020 #7

Right! SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #13

Voting by mail didn't just suddenly appear this year. Mike 03 Sep 2020 #9

Sooooo, Trump would ... NOT ... have ranted against any other tools of democracy? Thx in advance uponit7771 Sep 2020 #11

nobody 'fell for it'. it's an integral part of voting. he'll rant till hell freezes over spanone Sep 2020 #12

Yes he will! SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #16

All or nothing thinking Dem2 Sep 2020 #15

Don't tell me what to do. SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #20

But isn't telling others what to do the subject of your post? SoonerPride Sep 2020 #25

? Dem2 Sep 2020 #27

Well why are you telling people they have fallen for something? LisaL Sep 2020 #53

Trump always tries to scare people away from doing the thing he most fears they Mike 03 Sep 2020 #17

I can't wait to vote by mail... stillcool Sep 2020 #18

I have voted by mail for several years now. Trump lies. There is no problem with Mail in voting. Autumn Sep 2020 #21

They are going to MAKE PROBLEMS! SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #32

Guess what? They are ALWAYS going to MAKE PROBLEMS! That's what they do. Autumn Sep 2020 #46

Mailed votes are the only votes they can't erase with surgical precision without a trace rainin Sep 2020 #22

Fuck Trump. We shouldn't have to risk serious illness or death to cast a vote. Tanuki Sep 2020 #24

No. It works. mahina Sep 2020 #28

mail in pamdb Sep 2020 #29

Trump doesn't want VBV because it's more difficult to hack Dream Girl Sep 2020 #31

The press needs to ask him during one of his little rants if he's behind after the walk-in votes Vinca Sep 2020 #34

Yeah the tried SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #36

In FL if you vote by mail as a Dem, you are very likely to have your ballot tossed. lark Sep 2020 #35

informative. SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #38

Thank you. lark Sep 2020 #42

If you are early voting in person, then you are voting in person. LisaL Sep 2020 #52

It matters to me and to many others. lark Sep 2020 #90

I'm surprised that's not regarded as a major legal offense. Crunchy Frog Sep 2020 #68

I think the House & Senate could pass something, hmm, wht could they call it? ... Hekate Sep 2020 #76

Maybe they don't throw them out, but just don't send letters to the Dems? lark Sep 2020 #91

Vote by mail produces a paper trail, paper ballots that can be audited to check for election fraud. CaptainTruth Sep 2020 #37

++ this 100% lunasun Sep 2020 #49

I sort of agree having recently Backseat Driver Sep 2020 #39

I'm dropping my ballot off at the county election drop box. poli-junkie Sep 2020 #40

Great! SlogginThroughIt Sep 2020 #41

Me too. And my county has a "Where's My Ballot" web portal that tracks your ballot right MizLibby Sep 2020 #56

Try and drop it in a lily white neighborhood, because Woodward's book describes how they Squinch Sep 2020 #67

Of course he is. If he can't compromise voters, he's got to compromise the vote. marble falls Sep 2020 #43

What? Its one way to counter the reduction in polling places Raven123 Sep 2020 #44

F**k Trump Thomas Hurt Sep 2020 #45

It will be interesting to see if Biden is leading tulipsandroses Sep 2020 #47

Nobody "fell" for anything. Our big mistake was simply underestimating... Crunchy Frog Sep 2020 #48

What are you talking about? LisaL Sep 2020 #50

Gosh! H2O Man Sep 2020 #54

I trust it more than the voting machines here. Buckeye_Democrat Sep 2020 #55

Not only that, but mail in ballots are being disqualified at high rates. pat_k Sep 2020 #57

North Carolina allows votes to correct the issue. LisaL Sep 2020 #59

Only 19 states allow "curing." Almost half notified of error were not "cured" (Nevada stat) pat_k Sep 2020 #61

And how many people would not vote if not given vote by mail option? LisaL Sep 2020 #64

I'm not saying we shouldn't be mailing in. But we must recognize the problems. pat_k Sep 2020 #69

I recognize there are issues with mail in ballots. LisaL Sep 2020 #70

Lines are intolerable. I am SOOO frustrated... pat_k Sep 2020 #71

That's a matter of voter education. Ms. Toad Sep 2020 #74

We're doing well on "get you vote in" message. Not so well on. . . pat_k Sep 2020 #82

Agreed. Ms. Toad Sep 2020 #83

North Carolina also makes it harder than most other states because it requires a witness to sign. LisaL Sep 2020 #89

Washington State has had mail in only for years Evergreen Emerald Sep 2020 #58

Mail in ballot processes hastily put together are problematic pat_k Sep 2020 #62

And long lines of people waiting to vote are not problematic? LisaL Sep 2020 #63

People are showing up in person in the first four states to vote. Blue_true Sep 2020 #60

I hope so. pat_k Sep 2020 #72

Virginia is opening more satellite sites on Monday. Such is the response in a Democratic Party led Blue_true Sep 2020 #73

Great to hear. pat_k Sep 2020 #79

And we don't have a democratic SOS in OH. LisaL Sep 2020 #81

Crap. I wonder how many others Ballotpedia got wrong? pat_k Sep 2020 #86

Arizona has a Democratic SOS. She won Office in 2018 and has made improvements there. nt Blue_true Sep 2020 #84

That's good because AZ is likely going for Biden this year. LisaL Sep 2020 #85

That state is interesting. Blue_true Sep 2020 #88

Clearly, the list on Ballotpedia is out of date. Apologies. pat_k Sep 2020 #87

Pure BS! nt USALiberal Sep 2020 #65

Don't know what you're drinking, but Trump & the GOP have proven they will lie about ANYTHING Hekate Sep 2020 #75

Oh, I don't know MissMillie Sep 2020 #77

I've voted by mail in FL for years mcar Sep 2020 #78

Google "vote by mail". Trump's ad to request a ballot and vote from home is at the top. mia Sep 2020 #80