Don't be surprised if Trump receives sympathy support for this...

[Drunken Irishman]

30. I am not predicting a Trump victory.

All I am doing is pointing to the fact that Trump could see a surge of support over sympathy that improves his chances. Boris Johnson in the UK saw a 20 point surge of support after testing positive. It didn't last - but by the time his approval had dropped back to the levels seen before his crisis, a couple months had passed. Even a month out from testing positive, he still was 10+ points better than prior to the crisis.

Trump's approval right now is 43.8% (according to 538). I don't think he'll see a 20 point bump but even a five point bump takes him to 48.8% and that changes everything.

Now it's possible Americans don't rally around him and fault him for his dismissive approach to the virus and his approval actually gets worse ... but to be honest, with how Americans have historically rallied around the president in crazy moments, it would not surprise me if that didn't happen and he saw some boost in the polls.

NOW if Biden tests positive too because of the debate, then Trump is toast.