General Discussion

aggiesal

(10,843 posts)

59. NC Poll numbers from FiveThirtyEight

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 07:59 PM

Sep 2012

North Carolina
[font color=Black]FiveThirtyEight Projections [font color=Blue]Dem [font color=Red]Rep [font color=Purple]Margin[\font]
[font color=Black]Polling average [font color=Blue]46.3 [font color=Red]47.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +0.7[\font]
[font color=Black]Adjusted polling average [font color=Blue]46.3 [font color=Red]47.9 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.6[\font]
[font color=Black]State fundamentals [font color=Blue]45.3 [font color=Red]48.3 [font color=Purple]Romney +3.0[\font]
[font color=Black]Now-cast [font color=Blue]46.1 [font color=Red]48.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.9[\font]
[font color=Black]Projected vote share ±4.4 [font color=Blue]48.7 [font color=Red]50.6 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.9[\font]
[font color=Black]Chance of winning [font color=Blue]33% [font color=Red]67%[\font]

[font color=Black]Polls 538 WT. [font color=Green]Date [font color=Blue]Dem [font color=Red]Rep [font color=Purple]Margin[\font]
[font color=Black]Purple Strategies [font color=Green]9/19 [font color=Blue]48.0 [font color=Red]46.0 [font color=Purple]Obama +2.0[\font]
[font color=Black]National Research [font color=Green]9/19 [font color=Blue]49.0 [font color=Red]45.0 [font color=Purple]Obama +4.0[\font]
[font color=Black]High Point University [font color=Green]9/18 [font color=Blue]48.0 [font color=Red]44.0 [font color=Purple]Obama +4.0[\font]
[font color=Black]YouGov [font color=Green]9/14 [font color=Blue]44.0 [font color=Red]45.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.0[\font]
[font color=Black]Rasmussen [font color=Green]9/13 [font color=Blue]45.0 [font color=Red]51.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +6.0[\font]

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HOLY SHIT!! Be honest...did you see this coming? This early? [View all] renie408 Sep 2012 OP

I was trying to find some recent polling on Indiana and Missouri as well, since, along with Arizona, NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #1

Todd Akin is the reason we have a "legitimate" shot in MO KamaAina Sep 2012 #13

Tennessee is even pink in most of the models! Fawke Em Sep 2012 #31

Well, that's actually a little wider of a spread than in the past in Tennessee, as I recall. antigone382 Sep 2012 #80

It was 15 points in '08 and 10 in '04 fishwax Sep 2012 #112

I wouldn't hold my breath for Indiana caraher Sep 2012 #35

Now THAT is one individual whose political growth needs a little stunting. calimary Sep 2012 #44

Here's the campaign site caraher Sep 2012 #71

Great! Thanks! calimary Sep 2012 #93

Obama won it in 2008 . . . aggiesal Sep 2012 #48

OK, but... caraher Sep 2012 #70

Agreed n/t aggiesal Sep 2012 #73

Real Clear Politics jbnow Sep 2012 #97

Go to . . . aggiesal Sep 2012 #37

I know - I nearly live there! Am looking for very recent polling numbers - NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #38

agree - that is the problem right now - lack of recent polling:-) CitizenPatriot Sep 2012 #57

NC Poll numbers from FiveThirtyEight aggiesal Sep 2012 #59

WOW littlemissmartypants Sep 2012 #95

There is a stat re: @ this time in Sept. any candidate for president... Astazia Sep 2012 #56

There are links on this thread to polls on the House races. Rhiannon12866 Sep 2012 #88

Claire is running well loyalsister Sep 2012 #98

There isn't much hoodwinking Gore1FL Sep 2012 #105

I'm talking about hoodwink people who lean right loyalsister Sep 2012 #108

Down ticket is where $$$ is needed. trof Sep 2012 #2

I'm with you - I sent some money to Obama, and some to the Dem running in my district, hedgehog Sep 2012 #3

Rupert Murdoch saw it coming. mr_hat Sep 2012 #4

I finally saw a "Mitt" bumper sticker today in Scottsdale AZ thelordofhell Sep 2012 #5

i've seen one "R/R" yard sign in Gold Canyon Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #11

Is it the ranch?? thelordofhell Sep 2012 #25

Nope Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #27

Sorry, I was thinking of a different place thelordofhell Sep 2012 #87

I'd "accidentally" run it over if I saw it DesertRat Sep 2012 #51

First of all Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #63

Simultaneous replies unc70 Sep 2012 #65

Not exactly Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #69

Geez, I don't need a lecture DesertRat Sep 2012 #90

Illegal in most states unc70 Sep 2012 #64

Oh for heaven's sake DesertRat Sep 2012 #91

Was a reminder for wide audience unc70 Sep 2012 #100

I saw my first Willard sticker yesterday in Phoenix too! Applan Sep 2012 #34

There's more stickers for Ron Paul than Mitt in Phoenix thelordofhell Sep 2012 #86

Most Mitt voters are just anti-Obama. DesertRat Sep 2012 #50

Saw my *first* R/R bumper sticker today too! Freddie Sep 2012 #61

Rmoney has put the focus back on wealth/inequality, and that's how Dems get super-majorities. reformist2 Sep 2012 #6

Beware nichomachus Sep 2012 #7

Do you mean Howard Dean? lunatica Sep 2012 #12

Do you mean Howard Dean? RevStPatrick Sep 2012 #14

Yes, thank you for catching that, but nichomachus Sep 2012 #15

I hear you, but there is a HUGE difference renie408 Sep 2012 #16

Big difference between Howard Dean and Barack Obama. Initech Sep 2012 #17

just to set thing straight, Howard was hardly a joke among republicans- he was feared Capn Sunshine Sep 2012 #67

He was feared after '06. renie408 Sep 2012 #74

That was a classic Media mugging. Capn Sunshine Sep 2012 #84

I knew some people who were there that night, SheilaT Sep 2012 #110

Some high-placed Dems helped to have Obama lose in Iowa. fadedrose Sep 2012 #78

Yep. Us too. Le Taz Hot Sep 2012 #96

At last fadedrose Sep 2012 #104

Howard Dean was an unknown. morningfog Sep 2012 #79

I saw it coming when I first heard about Seamus rocktivity Sep 2012 #8

It's so delicious that the Kochs are a major reason why this is happening. tridim Sep 2012 #9

It happened because they took the lead and dominated the talking points from the beginning lunatica Sep 2012 #10

+1 nt jaysunb Sep 2012 #62

47 % MFM008 Sep 2012 #18

I've been expecting this moment for ten years... k2qb3 Sep 2012 #19

I saw an interactive Sekhmets Daughter Sep 2012 #24

If he can help Arizona realize that their batshittery is just that. Batshittery Panasonic Sep 2012 #20

I saw something the other day where Carmona was beating the pos Flake. jillan Sep 2012 #22

I'm with you on that. I'm really interested in the Carmona race. liberalla Sep 2012 #36

my household is very interested in the Carmona race lebkuchen Sep 2012 #106

The DCCC is playing alot of commercials here for Dems running for office - and all the GOPers are jillan Sep 2012 #21

:) renie408 Sep 2012 #23

That is so exciting! PatSeg Sep 2012 #103

Howard Dean? bahrbearian Sep 2012 #26

I must have been out of the country the year Howard Dean won the nomination. renie408 Sep 2012 #30

Seriously, you think Obama runs the DNC? bahrbearian Sep 2012 #66

WAIT! renie408 Sep 2012 #72

I was never really scared but then I thought we'd win in 2004 Hamlette Sep 2012 #28

I agree with everything you are saying. renie408 Sep 2012 #32

I never understood how Romney was ever running close Thrill Sep 2012 #29

I saw it coming. Summer Hathaway Sep 2012 #33

I was HOPING, but I really thought Obama would be trailing or tied renie408 Sep 2012 #40

I have been completely confident Summer Hathaway Sep 2012 #49

I know! lillypaddle Sep 2012 #39

Me too!! renie408 Sep 2012 #42

Keep the faith! n/t lillypaddle Sep 2012 #43

Everyone here is acting like Obama won already tarheelsunc Sep 2012 #41

Hey, relax a little lillypaddle Sep 2012 #46

Use enthusiasm to build a wave, critical in NC unc70 Sep 2012 #99

I signed up for a weekly; greiner3 Sep 2012 #45

awesome news Dedicated Mind Sep 2012 #47

Yep yep yepper Sugarcoated Sep 2012 #54

For the Campaign to make a play for AZ ... 1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #52

Brewer has pissed off a hell of a lot of people there Warpy Sep 2012 #53

the slate of GOP primary candidates was a big clue vlyons Sep 2012 #55

I'm right there with you, Renie. kag Sep 2012 #58

If Mississippi or Kentucky are in play, I'm going back to church! Bake Sep 2012 #60

Save your gas; you'd be raptured before you got there. gkhouston Sep 2012 #75

As the primaries were getting into gear, Doc Holliday Sep 2012 #68

Carmona is impressive! And in the 9th District Kirsten Sinema is fantastic! I'm excited too! lonestarnot Sep 2012 #76

Remember 1972 and 1984. Dawson Leery Sep 2012 #77

Remember how rough the GOP convention week was? fried eggs Sep 2012 #81

But what if millions can't actually vote? LynnTTT Sep 2012 #82

It's not early, and ProSense Sep 2012 #83

TBH, I didn't quite see Romney's incredible downfall, either. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #85

I am so not Cha Sep 2012 #89

I did tavalon Sep 2012 #92

Not me. Le Taz Hot Sep 2012 #94

A little bit of Obama love can make a difference in the down ticket...go OFA. Historic NY Sep 2012 #101

Ain't over till it's over... vi5 Sep 2012 #102

Here: bemildred Sep 2012 #107

I'm excited but also hand ringing Doodler71 Sep 2012 #109

I have azmesa207 Sep 2012 #111

it may be too early to get excited, but better this than stressing on a competitive tight race seabeyond Sep 2012 #113