General Discussion

jbnow

(3,660 posts)

97. Real Clear Politics

Thu Sep 27, 2012, 05:30 AM

Sep 2012

only shows 2 polls for Indiana presidential, the most recent was from 8/01/12
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/in/indiana_romney_vs_obama-3167.html
They show it pink, as leans republican. So is Arizona)

They JUST moved Ohio from toss up to leans Obama as they did in the last week or two Michigan and Wisconsin, so it has to feel like a pretty solid lead to even give them a lean.
Their No Toss Up map has the electoral count as 347 Obama and 191 romney! But even with toss ups Obama has 265 per their reckoning and would only need to win ONE of the remaining toss ups (No, guess NH wouldn't get him to 270 alone, any other would)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Obama leads in all of those states, most look pretty solid. N Carolina is his weakest lead, the average has him up by 1.
This is a fun map to play with, they show the recent changes in status and you can click any state to get all the polls for the race. (The swing states get a lot of polls.)

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HOLY SHIT!! Be honest...did you see this coming? This early? [View all] renie408 Sep 2012 OP

I was trying to find some recent polling on Indiana and Missouri as well, since, along with Arizona, NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #1

Todd Akin is the reason we have a "legitimate" shot in MO KamaAina Sep 2012 #13

Tennessee is even pink in most of the models! Fawke Em Sep 2012 #31

Well, that's actually a little wider of a spread than in the past in Tennessee, as I recall. antigone382 Sep 2012 #80

It was 15 points in '08 and 10 in '04 fishwax Sep 2012 #112

I wouldn't hold my breath for Indiana caraher Sep 2012 #35

Now THAT is one individual whose political growth needs a little stunting. calimary Sep 2012 #44

Here's the campaign site caraher Sep 2012 #71

Great! Thanks! calimary Sep 2012 #93

Obama won it in 2008 . . . aggiesal Sep 2012 #48

OK, but... caraher Sep 2012 #70

Agreed n/t aggiesal Sep 2012 #73

Real Clear Politics jbnow Sep 2012 #97

Go to . . . aggiesal Sep 2012 #37

I know - I nearly live there! Am looking for very recent polling numbers - NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #38

agree - that is the problem right now - lack of recent polling:-) CitizenPatriot Sep 2012 #57

NC Poll numbers from FiveThirtyEight aggiesal Sep 2012 #59

WOW littlemissmartypants Sep 2012 #95

There is a stat re: @ this time in Sept. any candidate for president... Astazia Sep 2012 #56

There are links on this thread to polls on the House races. Rhiannon12866 Sep 2012 #88

Claire is running well loyalsister Sep 2012 #98

There isn't much hoodwinking Gore1FL Sep 2012 #105

I'm talking about hoodwink people who lean right loyalsister Sep 2012 #108

Down ticket is where $$$ is needed. trof Sep 2012 #2

I'm with you - I sent some money to Obama, and some to the Dem running in my district, hedgehog Sep 2012 #3

Rupert Murdoch saw it coming. mr_hat Sep 2012 #4

I finally saw a "Mitt" bumper sticker today in Scottsdale AZ thelordofhell Sep 2012 #5

i've seen one "R/R" yard sign in Gold Canyon Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #11

Is it the ranch?? thelordofhell Sep 2012 #25

Nope Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #27

Sorry, I was thinking of a different place thelordofhell Sep 2012 #87

I'd "accidentally" run it over if I saw it DesertRat Sep 2012 #51

First of all Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #63

Simultaneous replies unc70 Sep 2012 #65

Not exactly Tansy_Gold Sep 2012 #69

Geez, I don't need a lecture DesertRat Sep 2012 #90

Illegal in most states unc70 Sep 2012 #64

Oh for heaven's sake DesertRat Sep 2012 #91

Was a reminder for wide audience unc70 Sep 2012 #100

I saw my first Willard sticker yesterday in Phoenix too! Applan Sep 2012 #34

There's more stickers for Ron Paul than Mitt in Phoenix thelordofhell Sep 2012 #86

Most Mitt voters are just anti-Obama. DesertRat Sep 2012 #50

Saw my *first* R/R bumper sticker today too! Freddie Sep 2012 #61

Rmoney has put the focus back on wealth/inequality, and that's how Dems get super-majorities. reformist2 Sep 2012 #6

Beware nichomachus Sep 2012 #7

Do you mean Howard Dean? lunatica Sep 2012 #12

Do you mean Howard Dean? RevStPatrick Sep 2012 #14

Yes, thank you for catching that, but nichomachus Sep 2012 #15

I hear you, but there is a HUGE difference renie408 Sep 2012 #16

Big difference between Howard Dean and Barack Obama. Initech Sep 2012 #17

just to set thing straight, Howard was hardly a joke among republicans- he was feared Capn Sunshine Sep 2012 #67

He was feared after '06. renie408 Sep 2012 #74

That was a classic Media mugging. Capn Sunshine Sep 2012 #84

I knew some people who were there that night, SheilaT Sep 2012 #110

Some high-placed Dems helped to have Obama lose in Iowa. fadedrose Sep 2012 #78

Yep. Us too. Le Taz Hot Sep 2012 #96

At last fadedrose Sep 2012 #104

Howard Dean was an unknown. morningfog Sep 2012 #79

I saw it coming when I first heard about Seamus rocktivity Sep 2012 #8

It's so delicious that the Kochs are a major reason why this is happening. tridim Sep 2012 #9

It happened because they took the lead and dominated the talking points from the beginning lunatica Sep 2012 #10

+1 nt jaysunb Sep 2012 #62

47 % MFM008 Sep 2012 #18

I've been expecting this moment for ten years... k2qb3 Sep 2012 #19

I saw an interactive Sekhmets Daughter Sep 2012 #24

If he can help Arizona realize that their batshittery is just that. Batshittery Panasonic Sep 2012 #20

I saw something the other day where Carmona was beating the pos Flake. jillan Sep 2012 #22

I'm with you on that. I'm really interested in the Carmona race. liberalla Sep 2012 #36

my household is very interested in the Carmona race lebkuchen Sep 2012 #106

The DCCC is playing alot of commercials here for Dems running for office - and all the GOPers are jillan Sep 2012 #21

:) renie408 Sep 2012 #23

That is so exciting! PatSeg Sep 2012 #103

Howard Dean? bahrbearian Sep 2012 #26

I must have been out of the country the year Howard Dean won the nomination. renie408 Sep 2012 #30

Seriously, you think Obama runs the DNC? bahrbearian Sep 2012 #66

WAIT! renie408 Sep 2012 #72

I was never really scared but then I thought we'd win in 2004 Hamlette Sep 2012 #28

I agree with everything you are saying. renie408 Sep 2012 #32

I never understood how Romney was ever running close Thrill Sep 2012 #29

I saw it coming. Summer Hathaway Sep 2012 #33

I was HOPING, but I really thought Obama would be trailing or tied renie408 Sep 2012 #40

I have been completely confident Summer Hathaway Sep 2012 #49

I know! lillypaddle Sep 2012 #39

Me too!! renie408 Sep 2012 #42

Keep the faith! n/t lillypaddle Sep 2012 #43

Everyone here is acting like Obama won already tarheelsunc Sep 2012 #41

Hey, relax a little lillypaddle Sep 2012 #46

Use enthusiasm to build a wave, critical in NC unc70 Sep 2012 #99

I signed up for a weekly; greiner3 Sep 2012 #45

awesome news Dedicated Mind Sep 2012 #47

Yep yep yepper Sugarcoated Sep 2012 #54

For the Campaign to make a play for AZ ... 1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #52

Brewer has pissed off a hell of a lot of people there Warpy Sep 2012 #53

the slate of GOP primary candidates was a big clue vlyons Sep 2012 #55

I'm right there with you, Renie. kag Sep 2012 #58

If Mississippi or Kentucky are in play, I'm going back to church! Bake Sep 2012 #60

Save your gas; you'd be raptured before you got there. gkhouston Sep 2012 #75

As the primaries were getting into gear, Doc Holliday Sep 2012 #68

Carmona is impressive! And in the 9th District Kirsten Sinema is fantastic! I'm excited too! lonestarnot Sep 2012 #76

Remember 1972 and 1984. Dawson Leery Sep 2012 #77

Remember how rough the GOP convention week was? fried eggs Sep 2012 #81

But what if millions can't actually vote? LynnTTT Sep 2012 #82

It's not early, and ProSense Sep 2012 #83

TBH, I didn't quite see Romney's incredible downfall, either. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #85

I am so not Cha Sep 2012 #89

I did tavalon Sep 2012 #92

Not me. Le Taz Hot Sep 2012 #94

A little bit of Obama love can make a difference in the down ticket...go OFA. Historic NY Sep 2012 #101

Ain't over till it's over... vi5 Sep 2012 #102

Here: bemildred Sep 2012 #107

I'm excited but also hand ringing Doodler71 Sep 2012 #109

I have azmesa207 Sep 2012 #111

it may be too early to get excited, but better this than stressing on a competitive tight race seabeyond Sep 2012 #113