General Discussion

BGBD

(3,282 posts)

68. It just doesn't work like that in practice.

Sat Oct 10, 2020, 03:22 AM

Oct 2020

In theory, yes, you could have large states with a politically homogenous electorate, but we just don't. Hillary won California by 30 points, not 60. If Biden were to improve on her numbers in California he would have to do so by winning over the same types of voters he would need to win PA or WI, so you can't improve that much just based on already blue states.

Sure, we don't elect based on national vote, but there isn't a world where Trump or anyone else can lose an election by 8 points nationally and manage to get to 270, it's just not happening. Also, if you consider Biden outperforming Hillary among seniors and white voters you will see that he has a built in advantage over her electorally, so it's quite likely that he would win nationally by less than she did and still get to 270.

So as I said, if Biden goes into election day with an 8 point national lead then Trump is going to need a very large polling error in his direction to find a path to 270.

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Ari on MSNBC wasd just talking about Hillary polling higher than Joe is at the same time in the [View all] napi21 Oct 2020 OP

Me too XanaDUer2 Oct 2020 #1

I zoned out when he started that one... Wounded Bear Oct 2020 #2

this isn't 2016 agingdem Oct 2020 #6

Yep. Scurrilous Oct 2020 #13

yes bdamomma Oct 2020 #37

there is a big difference. drray23 Oct 2020 #3

Exactly. This is not 2016. peggysue2 Oct 2020 #69

This! icymist Oct 2020 #71

IIRC that's not true, according to the polls Ari reported in some swing states. spooky3 Oct 2020 #74

Huge difference in undecided voters though. Hardly anyone is undecided now OnDoutside Oct 2020 #4

This isn't even close to the same vercetti2021 Oct 2020 #5

Not true. HC 44.8% DT 39.7% 10-9-16 Cattledog Oct 2020 #7

Ari talked about 2 swing states not the national polling which he admitted mean nothing cause its uponit7771 Oct 2020 #19

trump has a record or lack thereof to run on in 2020. Norbert Oct 2020 #52

I saw comment on this a few days ago. The moonscape Oct 2020 #8

It's all about turn out msdogi Oct 2020 #9

I don't remember millions of voters having already voted at this time secondwind Oct 2020 #10

Exactly. At this point in 2016 we still had less than a million vote. jorgevlorgan Oct 2020 #16

and trump is the incumbent. everybody knows all about him besides democrats nt msongs Oct 2020 #11

He must be cherry-picking the polls... regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #12

Yep -- Cherry-Picking The High Point (Right After Access Hollywood Tape, Before Comey Late Hit nt) smb Oct 2020 #32

ah ... got it uponit7771 Oct 2020 #38

Well that's not even close to true. jorgevlorgan Oct 2020 #14

Exactly! Melber..a two siderism jerk. Sowing doubt Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #17

I mean if it were true, I wouldn't mind. But I don't understand why they have to say untrue things. jorgevlorgan Oct 2020 #20

Ari Melber has turned into a total jerk..he was dissing Joe the their day about age Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #15

Exactly Trumpocalypse Oct 2020 #63

Sometimes I wonder about him, is he a democrat or a republican. I went to CNN after Nicolle. Happily katmondoo Oct 2020 #18

not true . my dream is that EVERYONE turn off TV and stop feeding the beast NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 #21

Hillary's poll numbers took a hit after Comey announced reopening email probe mid- October wishstar Oct 2020 #22

+1 uponit7771 Oct 2020 #39

Ari lied, HRC NEVER had a lead like Biden has. Question is why did he lie? beachbumbob Oct 2020 #23

As I Noted Above, HRC *VERY BRIEFLY* Had That Lead smb Oct 2020 #33

+1, looks like Ari took date to date polling after Access Hollywood tape and not week to week or ... uponit7771 Oct 2020 #55

Ratings, views, horse race. GulfCoast66 Oct 2020 #59

I saw swing state polls the other day... ClusterFreak Oct 2020 #24

I distincly remember seeing Steve Kornaki doing a segment comparing Hillary and Bidens polling leads Dream Girl Oct 2020 #25

He showed RCP averages for today which was right after Access Hollywood tapes and before Comey. uponit7771 Oct 2020 #40

Comey news the end of the month, 11 days before election, took her down 7 points. LizBeth Oct 2020 #26

+1 uponit7771 Oct 2020 #41

Look at this comparison HelpImSurrounded Oct 2020 #27

That's nationally, Ari was talking about 2 swing state polls with date to date info but didn't ... uponit7771 Oct 2020 #53

Absolutely false- 2016: HRC +4.3% 2020: Biden +9.6% Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #28

I don't recall BainsBane Oct 2020 #29

So, with all the evidence to the contrary of the assertions in your OP, are you still scared? Nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #30

Virtually all of the evidence to the contrary provided Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #34

A 10% margin in the pop vote gives 99.9% odds of EC win; HRC had 2-3% which 50% odds Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #43

You cannot predict the votes in key states by the margin in the popular vote. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #48

Quinnipiac poll of PA Oct 7: Biden +13%, 2.8%MOE Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #54

That data is at least responsive to the concern raised in the OP, Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #58

Of course he is still vulnerable. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #31

HA! No she wasn't! OhZone Oct 2020 #35

Those are national numbers, the numbers Ari was touting were two swing states but it looks like it.. uponit7771 Oct 2020 #42

Putin did even more. triron Oct 2020 #56

+1, if that was LV low MOE data in 16 then that's not far fetched. Right now Comey looks like the... uponit7771 Oct 2020 #62

The national spread does not have a direct correlation Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #50

Why do you say that? BGBD Oct 2020 #64

National polls predict the popular vote, not the electoral vote. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #65

It just doesn't work like that in practice. BGBD Oct 2020 #68

Unless you are basing it on state polls, it isn't a polling error - Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #70

And? BGBD Oct 2020 #72

But she lost based on STATE results, she did not lose the popular national vote. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #73

Another key difference in the EC vs national polls spooky3 Oct 2020 #76

Agreed. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #78

Thank YOU! smirkymonkey Oct 2020 #60

I stopped recording him. He is a jerk. He knows how helpisontheway Oct 2020 #36

I don't record him or Chris Hayes any more Dream Girl Oct 2020 #45

I can't stand how BainsBane Oct 2020 #66

That's not true even Obama 08 only polled 7.6 Tribetime Oct 2020 #44

I just watched him liberalmediaaddict Oct 2020 #46

Yeah, that segment was a major downer today. beaglelover Oct 2020 #47

I saw it too. PlanetBev Oct 2020 #49

Ari's always been an annoying, too-clever-by-half, imp. He may pass oasis Oct 2020 #51

absolutely disagree, I really like him a lot nt Celerity Oct 2020 #77

What did you think of his interview of whacko Scott Adams (Dilbert)10/19? oasis Oct 2020 #80

was not impressed, but I still like him, never going to agree 100% with anyone Celerity Oct 2020 #81

Fair enough. nt oasis Oct 2020 #82

So do something! treestar Oct 2020 #57

Yes, Volunteer! BainsBane Oct 2020 #67

Ari can't be trusted. LiberalFighter Oct 2020 #61

I think he was clearly trying to warn us not to be complacent or overconfident spooky3 Oct 2020 #75

Ari at it again Monday with "Dewey defeats Truman" headline pic. oasis Oct 2020 #79