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ProfessorGAC

(76,893 posts)

30. Agreed!

Reply to zipplewrath (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 12, 2020, 10:50 AM

Oct 2020

But, given how many scenarios come into play, I think the floor is nearly 10%.
I'm doubting it's possible we'll see Nate's model showing 93 .
Because what he doesn't do is perfectly weight the probability of each outcome. Not sure how that could be done, so I'm not criticizing Silver on that.
So, at some point the floor stops moving toward zero. I doubt we'll see a number higher than 92, no matter what PINO does to sink himself.

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Trump is down to 13 on Fivethirtyeight [View all] Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 OP

Ugh, there's a tie scenario. unblock Oct 2020 #1

The tie scenario is irrelevant. TwilightZone Oct 2020 #4

And FL is key for the asshole. FL loss means game over for it. Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #7

I'm not complacent by any means, but I just don't see a path to victory in Florida for him. Pacifist Patriot Oct 2020 #16

The panhandle is certified stupid NorthOf270 Oct 2020 #24

I just don't see the Panhandle having the population to overcome the peninsula. Tommy_Carcetti Oct 2020 #28

I agree with you. Pacifist Patriot Oct 2020 #31

So you're saying the Democrats are too incompetent to pick Electors who will stick with Biden? brooklynite Oct 2020 #6

Your faith that zero out of 269 electors would crack unblock Oct 2020 #9

Almost every state has laws against that. nt Codeine Oct 2020 #14

And yet there are faithless electors nearly every 4 years unblock Oct 2020 #21

still has 43.6% approval and 53.2 % disapproval mucifer Oct 2020 #2

Loud and boorish ones too Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #5

if I never see another post about 538's odds it won;t be soon enough beachbumbob Oct 2020 #3

Agree Inablueway Oct 2020 #8

They can't be "wrong " zipplewrath Oct 2020 #11

Agreed! ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #30

It's the nature of probability zipplewrath Oct 2020 #32

I've Used Monte Carlo ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #33

They had many uses zipplewrath Oct 2020 #34

Tough luck, it is good news! Maybe take a break! nt USALiberal Oct 2020 #15

So ignore it then. BannonsLiver Oct 2020 #25

The clock is running out Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #10

You are correct, the models don't account for early voting. whopis01 Oct 2020 #19

"(T)he same chance as flipping a coin and having it come up heads 3 times in a row" Tommy_Carcetti Oct 2020 #29

At this point even with a 2016 polling error Jamesyu Oct 2020 #12

Yep. And Georgia, Maine 2, and Iowa within 1% and moving toward Biden. yellowcanine Oct 2020 #13

On 10/17/2016 Fivethirtyeight had Trump at 12 and Clinton at 88 whopis01 Oct 2020 #17

anything more that 0% is way too much Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #18

Agreed n/t whopis01 Oct 2020 #20

Agree. Any chance at all is terrifying. n/t Chemisse Oct 2020 #22

I think the key is momentum. One side has momentum, and if that keeps up, Trump's chances become Doodley Oct 2020 #23

538 Poll average is now Biden +10.6!!! Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #26

you mean beautiful? Le Roi de Pot Oct 2020 #27