My Florida Text Banking shift: well, that was depressing

[Awsi Dooger]

31. Republicans for Biden is the most overrated theme of this cycle

The anecdotes mean nothing. I emphasize that every cycle. Names change but nothing else. You can merely assign the typical percentage and ignore the noise and the hype.

That poll here the other day was extremely representative of my 24 years in Las Vegas. The most dependable method to easily defeat expectation is to understand and embrace normalcy while everyone else is scrambling to pretend abnormal. That's why I said 8% Republicans to Biden in a sample that ranged from 20% to 2%, at least among the early replies. I didn't go back to check later.

Biden needs independent swing voters. The entire election rests on their shoulders. That's where Lincoln Project and others should have been focusing. I mentioned that several times. The good news is that independents soured on Trump early in 2017 and have generally remained roughly +8-12 toward our side since that point.