538 has an interactive model now. Some interesting PA & FL stats [View all]

[Statistical]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

So 538 has this interactive model where you can alter the prediction on a single state and see how it affects the calculations

PA & FL I think will be critical to the election if it is close so I ran all four combinations on how those two states and only those two states being called would change the race. Yes in reality PA will likely to not be called for days maybe weeks after the polls close but as an academic experiment imagine the polls closed and immediately PA and FL and no other states were called how would that change the race.

Biden wins PA & FL = > 99% Biden win
Biden wins PA, Trump wins FL = 86% Biden win
Biden wins FL, Trump wins PA = 84% Biden win
Trump wins PA & FL = 7% Biden win

Biden has multiple paths to victory so winning either PA or FL doesn't make much of a difference even though FL is worth 9 more EV. Trump on the other hand really needs both or he is still a longshot to win.

Looking at just Florida, FL is so critical to Trump that if Biden takes FL and no other states are called the model predicts a >99% chance of Biden win in the EC. Trump taking FL isn't fatal but it drops the chance of a Biden to 59%. Florida could be called relatively early among battleground states so while it might not decide the race it may decide how quickly we know the winner of the race.

Important disclaimer to prevent misinterpreting. The above is based on a hypothetical where ONLY those two states are called. In reality some super safe states on both sides are likely to be called for both candidates. That moderates the odds a bit.
Below is a link to a map where I called all the likely states on both sides and gave Trump PA & FL. It is bad for Biden 24% chance of winning but it isn't 7% bad like the two state analysis above
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#VA:0,NY:0,VT:0,ME:0,NH:0,MA:0,CT:0,NJ:0,MD:0,CO:0,NM:0,CA:0,NV:0,OR:0,WA:0,OK:1,KS:1,NE:1,SD:1,ND:1,MT:1,ID:1,WY:1,UT:1,MO:1,AR:1,LA:1,MS:1,AL:1,KY:1,TN:1,WV:1,IN:1,SC:1,PA:1,FL:1,M1:0,N1:1,N3:1,AK:1,HI:0,IL:0,MN:0,TX:1