Nate Silver seems to be saying the writing is on the wall at this point [View all]

[Dr. Jack]

Nate Silver has had a series of posts on twitter today and the impression I am getting is that he's feeling much more confident in saying that the writing is on the wall for Trump at this point. He is doing is usual hedging, a bit, but overall he seems to be saying that Trump is probably fucked.

Here is what the prophet has to say:

I know this point was made repeatedly last night including by me, but after sleeping on it, I wonder if people aren't still underrating the importance of the debate having been Trump's best remaining opportunity to climb back into the race and it seemingly having been squandered. Trump can win. It's mathematically possible that polls could be waayyy off or something could come from totally out of the blue. But there are also a lot of things working against him in the final 11 days. COVID cases are rising. He's way behind in $. And 50m have already voted....I think the takes were right directionally, but this is a weird case where a non-event (the debate probably won't change many minds) is a big deal and maybe people are underestimating it magnitude-wise. On top of that, the WSJ fiasco with the Hunter Biden story was probably the last chance for that story to be taken seriously by the mainstream/non-partisan media, for better or worse. There really is kind of a parallel universe of Trump-friendly polls that are on a completely different planet from the polling consensus. The polling world is not unlike the rest of the media in that regard.

I combined all of his tweets into one paragraph, including some clarifications he made to people's questions about what he is saying. But nothing is missing from what he said and these are not taken out of context. If you want to find all of the things he said today, you have to dig through some of the replies.


https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538