Nate Silver seems to be saying the writing is on the wall at this point

[Drunken Irishman]

31. I didn't either.

I thought the states in danger were Nevada and Colorado (along with FL & NC, of course, with the expectation that OH & IA were out of reach). In my worst-case scenario, she wins PA, MI & WI but loses CO & NV and the election.

She obviously won both but lost much bigger states.

I knew she was likely to lose when Florida flipped. It had been her's, with a narrow lead, but then it flipped some time around 9 or 10 ET. At that point, it was clear she was underperforming in those three states she'd eventually lose.

The key hour, assuming all this vote by mail doesn't change things, will be between 8 and 9, maybe 8 through 10, ET. I've found that has, the last four elections, been the hour(s) where the results start becoming clearer.

In 2016, it's when I knew Hillary was in trouble.

In 2012, it's when I knew Obama was outperforming the polls and likely to win.

In 2008, it's when I knew Obama was doing what the polls said he was going to do (a lot of people had doubts about polls in 2008 like they do now, both because of 2004 and the idea of the Bradley Effect).

In 2004, it's when I realized all those exit polls leaked out during the day were likely wrong and Bush was doing stronger than expected.

I fully believe, especially with Florida, we'll have an idea who will be president between 8 and 10 ET, even if it's not called.