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ArizonaLib

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54. Trafalgar seems to be an outlier at least this year

Reply to cbdo2007 (Reply #36)

Fri Oct 23, 2020, 12:48 PM

Oct 2020

If the majority of pollsters have modified their methodologies, including adjustments for underestimating red turnout, Trafalgar seems to still be favoring Trump quite a bit. As for 2016, if a pollster like Trafalgar who regularly shows bias for an uexpected win, did they have the methodology correct then or is it correct now. 538's grading is based on accutacy of past elections, so if previous to 2016 they performed at what 538 graded as a 'C' did their grade change this yearto reflect 2016's performance? They seem to release polls which keep averages from tipping to Biden for states in play. If Trafalgar's lolls are less accurate this year vs 2016 won't 538 reflect a lower grade in 2024?

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Nate Silver seems to be saying the writing is on the wall at this point [View all] Dr. Jack Oct 2020 OP

A really different tone than what Silver took four years ago. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #1

We can "thank" Comey for what happened in 2016 still_one Oct 2020 #2

And it was hard to fully judge the effects until... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #8

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She had already had to regain ground from Comey's first attack in July. LisaM Oct 2020 #55

I think you're right in your last paragraph. Butterflylady Oct 2020 #56

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Hillary was a flawed candidate to begin with and why any so called "lead" was problematic beachbumbob Oct 2020 #3

yeah she didn't have a penis dsc Oct 2020 #5

+ JI7 Oct 2020 #11

Ding ding ding jcgoldie Oct 2020 #23

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That sums it up nicely DFW Oct 2020 #50

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This Cosmocat Oct 2020 #17

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Biden is flawed "even within the Democratic Party" TwilightZone Oct 2020 #26

I totally disagree. StevieM Oct 2020 #37

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This! Dream Girl Oct 2020 #44

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I like Sanders, don't get me wrong Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #72

No. She wasn't. StevieM Oct 2020 #38

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Two differences from 2016 Windy City Charlie Oct 2020 #15

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The Comey letter came out almost 4 years ago now NewJeffCT Oct 2020 #10

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What He Didn't Do Me. Oct 2020 #59

A lie of omission, added to a lie of exaggeration. lagomorph777 Oct 2020 #64

Exactly Me. Oct 2020 #67

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Here's a post I made on this subject four years ago. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #27

Thanks! Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #29

I didn't either. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #31

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I just did a quick DU search to see if I could find an OP on a long-forgotten double-whammy Celerity Oct 2020 #53

Thank you for pulling this material together. Mike 03 Oct 2020 #12

May be...but remember he was wrong on the 5 key states in 2016... cbdo2007 Oct 2020 #19

Just remember he is not a pollster. But an aggravator. GulfCoast66 Oct 2020 #35

Yeah, I saw that video they posted recently about the difference between 2016 and 2020... cbdo2007 Oct 2020 #36

Trafalgar seems to be an outlier at least this year ArizonaLib Oct 2020 #54

Yes, so it is difficult to determine this year. They were the outlier on many states in 2016 also. cbdo2007 Oct 2020 #60

I agree ArizonaLib Oct 2020 #61

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Brilliantly said. StevieM Oct 2020 #68

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