Sunday!!! 9 days to go! My daily home stretch election polling update [View all]

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Sun Oct 25, 2020, 11:31 PM - Edit history (10)

Ah, up early, Sunday Times (I love the Puzzle in the mag - finished it in an hour, but the ken ken and a few other of the puzzles are kicking my ass). Figured I'd do this now, after cleaning our basement but before making a pumpkin loaf. I'll refresh/update the numbers before I go to bed.

538 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Oct 12 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote.
Oct 13 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% popular vote
Oct 14 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 16 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs. 53.5% of the popular vote
Oct 17 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.6% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 88/100 chance of winning, 348 EVs, 53.6% of popular vote.
Oct 20 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 21 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 347 EVs, 53.5% of the popular vote.
Oct 23 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.4% of the popular vote.
Oct 24 - Joe 86/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.
today - Oct 25 - Joe 87/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote.

Essentially rock steady for 14 days

Another important number - Trump approve today is 42.6, disapprove 53.6 - an 11 gap. (I know...how can that many approve???)

Sam Wang Princeton - https://election.princeton.edu/

Oct 12 - Joe metamargin +6.3, estimate 369 EVs.
Oct 13 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 359 EVs
Oct 14 - Joe metamargin +6.0, est 358 EVs
Oct 15 - Joe metamargin +6.1, est 357 EVs
Oct 16 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 351 EVs
Oct 17 - Joe metamargin +5.9, est 353 EVs
Oct 18 - Joe metamargin +5.8, est 356 EVs
Oct 19 - Joe metamargin +5.7, est 351 EVs
Oct 20 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 356 EVs
Oct 21 - Joe metamargin +5.4, est 357 EVs
Oct 22 - Joe metamargin +5.6, est 362 EVs
Oct 23 - Joe metamagin +5.5, est 358 EVs
Oct 24 - Joe metamargin +5.5, est 357 EVs
today - Oct 25 - Joe metamargin +5.4, 360 EVs

pretty steady for 14 days, tiny bit of improving, even, from the tiny dip. "it's getting better all the time", as the Beatles say!

The Economist - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Oct 12 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, currently at 54.2% of popular vote
Oct 13 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, currently at 54.3% of popular vote.
Oct 14 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.3% of popular vote
Oct 15 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54% of popular vote.
Oct 16 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote.
Oct 17 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 18 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 341 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 19 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 20 - Joe 93/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.3% of the popular vote
Oct 21 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.2% of the popular vote
Oct 22 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 345 EVs, 54% of the popular vote
Oct 23 - Joe 92/100 chance of winning, 343 EVs, 54.1% of the popular vote
Oct 24 - Joe 91/100 chance of winning, 340 EVs, 53.9% of the popular vote
today - Oct 25 - Joe 94/100 chance of winning, 350 EVs, 54.5% of the popular vote

election day estimate Joe 54.3%

and, again, quite steady over the last 14 days, with a nice kick up tonight.

For the 14th day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening; in fact, teeny signs of improvement. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

The current electoral vote totals from the three sites are 345, 360 and 350. Very consistent.

Bonus addition - where the election was in 2016 on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

9 days before the election in 2016 was Oct 31. Hillary was at 71% chance, 312 EVs, 49 to 44 percent popular vote, 5 point separation - and this was 3 days after the Comey letter surfaced - her numbers were starting to drop. Joe has 33 more EVs, 16 percent higher chance, and 53 vs 49 percent popular vote - 4 point separation, with Joe well over 50. The Comey letter impact became worse - Joe's numbers are higher, and much more steady.

then...tomorrow and until election day - vote! help the campaign - phone bank - do whatever! Energize!