PA: Insider Advantage (B-) Trump +3

[NewsCenter28]

57. It did move close to 5 points

It did move the numbers by 5 points. Well almost 5 points. In the IBD/TIPP daily national tracking poll, Biden's lead went from around 3 to around 7 post-debate. Biden's lead also increased roughly by 2.5-3 points post-debate in the USC national tracking poll as well. I think it was 10, 10, and 10 in their 3 models in the last poll before the debate and now it's 13, 12 and 12. So, Biden's strong debate performance solidified his lead.

Had Toad actually won the debate, it's not hard to see IBD/TIPP showing +1 Toad or even now and USC just spitballing here 5, 7 and 7, which given it's pro-Biden lean might have indicated a 2-3 point race, which makes the EC a tossup.

As for President Obama, watch the First Ladies Documentary on CNN on Michelle Obama if it re-airs. The narrator, Robin Wright, intones "President Obama mounts a comeback victory" during their 2012 section. I truly believe SuperStorm Sandy reminded people why they liked President Obama so much and voted for him in the first place. Seeing him in action was one of the decisive moments in the campaign. Norah O'Donnell closed the 3rd debate on CBS by saying something like "even though President Obama had a strong performance tonight, all the momentum is with Mitt Romney." I remember, as I watched it live. Sandy destroyed that momentum, that the media perceived at least, and swung it back the right way.

Anyways, now that I've read more on this thread about the methodology and people behind this poll, I do agree that it's hardly a cataclysmic poll at all and is rather a push poll. The B- rating just threw me off a bit initially.

I don't think you have any idea how important a Biden win is to SO MANY people, especially me.