General Discussion

Polybius

(21,378 posts)

74. I'm one of the biggest realists here, and even I think there's almost no way he can win

Fri Oct 30, 2020, 12:11 PM

Oct 2020

I'm not the type to say we will win if I don't think so. I thought Bush was going to win in 2000 and 2004, and was cautious in 2012 and nervous in 2016.

With that being said the math just isn't there to win. Even if he does poll better than the polls look, he just has no chance to win WI and MI. Sure, he could still win without those states, but he is not winning every other one that he won in 2016. NC, FL, PA, and AZ are not all going to him. He will lose at least one of those. More likely 3 out of 4. Even if everything goes perfect for Trump, he'll get to 250 EV's. My prediction is he gets less, probably 220-230 EV's.

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Feeling Depressed? Worried That Trump Will Win? [View all] MineralMan Oct 2020 OP

K & R...nt Wounded Bear Oct 2020 #1

+1 BannonsLiver Oct 2020 #2

Good advice. Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #13

Personally, Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #3

Well, some are just panicky and worried. MineralMan Oct 2020 #4

I've seen a couple who I believe do not belong here despite the fact they have Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #10

I'm sure you're right in some cases. MineralMan Oct 2020 #12

I have been trashing the OP's and putting the worst on ignore. Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #23

Explain those other motives, please ThingsGottaChange Oct 2020 #144

Who am I? MineralMan Oct 2020 #166

some may be hidden trolls...not many but a few. Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #170

Exactly the same thing was said to those of us who expressed concerns in 2016. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #18

I'm not,in general,talking about Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #41

No. I take people at face value until they (specifically) have proven they are not trustworthy. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #75

This isn't 2016. Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #107

So you say - Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #114

His path is very narrow. Anyway, I'm not trying Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #116

No problem with that - Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #132

Thank you. cwydro Oct 2020 #72

Yup. I'm realy tired of it. n/t Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #77

Well, Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #91

yes, thank you jg10003 Oct 2020 #148

Of course people are worried and anxious... Dorian Gray Oct 2020 #153

Yup, agree. And my husband just got a job on Monday after being out of work for Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #26

Yay, great news! True Blue American Oct 2020 #105

God I hope so...the economy is bad. My hubs recruiter told him 200 to 300 applications Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #171

Whew. The Subject line made me think..... LakeArenal Oct 2020 #5

I've been blocking a lot of doomsayers this morning. lagomorph777 Oct 2020 #6

Oh, Mineral Man. Laelth Oct 2020 #7

I agree with this. Mike 03 Oct 2020 #11

People are (rightly) frightened. Laelth Oct 2020 #19

Agreed, 100%. DU is our haven. It's our safe space, and for some of us, the only place... Native Oct 2020 #38

+1 n/t Laelth Oct 2020 #43

Of course and it is understandable to be worried. I worry. Who doesn't? But there are some who Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #172

Oh Laeith. Tis not what you say but how you say it. I may agree that in public discouse more c-rational Oct 2020 #81

+1 n/t Silent3 Oct 2020 #104

Agreed Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #127

it's a stressful time. barbtries Oct 2020 #8

No, I am not depresses despite the bullshit on MJ this morning...we will win, and maybe Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #9

+1000! mcar Oct 2020 #14

Yeah - we only want happy talk. Just like 2016. Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #15

I remember 2016 on DU very, very well, Ms. Toad. MineralMan Oct 2020 #17

You obviously don't remember it well, Ms. Toad Oct 2020 #20

Don't waste your time with him. greytdemocrat Oct 2020 #149

I remember quite well that the OP posted something similar in 2016. cwydro Oct 2020 #160

Again, just stunning to see people discouraging free speech here. cwydro Oct 2020 #159

And constant bad news demoralized voters and reduces the numbers of those who vote. Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #174

That goes for pundits as well crimycarny Oct 2020 #16

I agree. However, those pundits are not DUers. MineralMan Oct 2020 #24

I respect MM too - cilla4progress Oct 2020 #21

Anyone who posts on a political discussion forum should be prepared MineralMan Oct 2020 #28

Ditto. SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #64

Yes, but, cilla4progress Oct 2020 #102

Totally agree, but sometimes the headline is misleading. Then I close it. patricia92243 Oct 2020 #36

Thank you, this is just what I needed...... a kennedy Oct 2020 #22

I see that I'm an outlier here, but I think it should be perfectly fine for... LAS14 Oct 2020 #25

I post what I want, when I want, and where I want. People are patricia92243 Oct 2020 #27

So do I. Yes, indeed, I do. MineralMan Oct 2020 #29

Didn't realiaze by the headline what it was about, or I certainly would patricia92243 Oct 2020 #33

And alert it! nt USALiberal Oct 2020 #46

Come on now. You want people to alert simply based on scipan Oct 2020 #122

For what reason can you alert on a post expressing anxiety? cwydro Oct 2020 #167

Sounds very authoritarian to me Beringia Oct 2020 #30

Does it? What authority do you suppose I have? MineralMan Oct 2020 #31

Authoritarian can be an attribute of someone who thinks they can/should... LAS14 Oct 2020 #34

It also brings to mind family dynamics, of don't criticize anything or else. Can come from Beringia Oct 2020 #37

Uh, no. I am aware that I have no authority, nor do I want any. MineralMan Oct 2020 #42

OK, here's the difference. It's great to disagree with people's opinions. What's not.. LAS14 Oct 2020 #52

"Feelings" are simply emotional responses. MineralMan Oct 2020 #57

Yes. True. But emotional responses are as legitimate on DU as the most cerebral opinion. LAS14 Oct 2020 #73

I agree Beringia Oct 2020 #84

Don't you try to have some authority. I thought you did. Beringia Oct 2020 #35

Not at all. I know full well that I have no authority. MineralMan Oct 2020 #39

No you didn't... Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #173

To me too. nt LAS14 Oct 2020 #32

C'mon man people are freaked the fuck out. SlogginThroughIt Oct 2020 #40

+1 n/t Laelth Oct 2020 #48

Being freaked out is an emotional response. MineralMan Oct 2020 #55

Well said, and completely agree. Rational response vs. a negative emotional response...why do c-rational Oct 2020 #60

Thanks. MineralMan Oct 2020 #63

So what? SlogginThroughIt Oct 2020 #67

They could be looking for reassurance treestar Oct 2020 #121

I am excited, but anxious Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #44

Thank you. SophieJean Oct 2020 #129

I have trashed many threads the last few days Rice4VP Oct 2020 #45

People think not being hopeful will help them. It actually hurts them. nolabear Oct 2020 #47

Exactly. Negative emotions can overpower reason and rationality. MineralMan Oct 2020 #49

Good post! I especially like your last paragraph. calimary Oct 2020 #162

Thank you for posting this. yardwork Oct 2020 #164

The GOP does not benefit from propping up BainsBane Oct 2020 #50

See, that's really the same thing I'm saying. MineralMan Oct 2020 #51

Not depressed at all, but certainly anxious Sucha NastyWoman Oct 2020 #53

Converting anxiety into action is the best possible answer. MineralMan Oct 2020 #59

Thank you for posting this. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #54

Yes. Each state has a threshold for automatic recounts. MineralMan Oct 2020 #61

K&R AmericanCanuck Oct 2020 #56

There are reasons to be optimistic bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #58

Yes. There are plenty of such reasons, it seems to me. MineralMan Oct 2020 #62

I am still not over my depression from 2016 mdbl Oct 2020 #65

PTSD Native Oct 2020 #118

After that headline, I thought you were going to offer me drugs. geomon666 Oct 2020 #66

Sorry. I have no drugs to offer. MineralMan Oct 2020 #68

I think birdographer Oct 2020 #69

I think you're probably right. I'm also encouraged MineralMan Oct 2020 #70

Agree, no one but trumpty dumpty benefits from doomsaying. You gotta claim what u want, I claim Joe iluvtennis Oct 2020 #71

I'm one of the biggest realists here, and even I think there's almost no way he can win Polybius Oct 2020 #74

+100 MineralMan Oct 2020 #76

Thank you! Polybius Oct 2020 #80

Maybe DU can create a page for people who want to share their anxiety about the election. C Moon Oct 2020 #78

Good idea Piasladic Oct 2020 #157

Yes. Just say no. n/t Harker Oct 2020 #79

Exactly vercetti2021 Oct 2020 #82

What is the number 1 reason not to worry? grantcart Oct 2020 #83

Exactly, and that is evidenced by the huge number of early votes MineralMan Oct 2020 #86

Being overly negative serves no purpose mvd Oct 2020 #85

We will deal with those possibilities if they happen. MineralMan Oct 2020 #88

I'm feeling hopeful about Biden. He should win mvd Oct 2020 #92

I don't think expressing concern here Meowmee Oct 2020 #87

We lost in 2016 because too many people simply did not like Hillary Clinton. MineralMan Oct 2020 #89

Thank you for your opinion on that Meowmee Oct 2020 #90

I see. Well, never mind then. MineralMan Oct 2020 #96

For some this is their lifeline according to them Meowmee Oct 2020 #99

the fear comes from realizing what is at stake. Aussie105 Oct 2020 #93

It does for some people. MineralMan Oct 2020 #110

there's a difference between being worried and being discouraging. cab67 Oct 2020 #94

This LiberalLovinLug Oct 2020 #113

There is a valid reason to be concerned about proper ballots counting AlexSFCA Oct 2020 #95

I've got no problems with sincere concerns being voiced. LanternWaste Oct 2020 #97

.. MineralMan Oct 2020 #98

I actually don't care what anyone says. He's going down... NNadir Oct 2020 #100

Yes, I think so too. MineralMan Oct 2020 #101

Never borrow trouble Nululu Oct 2020 #103

Nope Trump shouldn't have a chance, except for this vote suppression malarkey. Brainfodder Oct 2020 #106

Amen. It's go time. TomSlick Oct 2020 #108

+100 MineralMan Oct 2020 #109

Spot on. warmfeet Oct 2020 #111

AGREE! bluestarone Oct 2020 #112

So it seems as if there are questions about voting problems GusBob Oct 2020 #115

Everybody's doin it! Vote and know you had a hand in throwing Trump out! Big celebration brewens Oct 2020 #117

How about you post what you want, and the rest of us post what we want? Captain Stern Oct 2020 #119

I have control over what I write, but MineralMan Oct 2020 #133

Like the free speech message Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2020 #120

⭐️⭐️⭐️K&R ⭐️⭐️⭐️ spanone Oct 2020 #123

Hear! Hear! Dem2 Oct 2020 #124

Hi! Arizona here. I saw what I wanted to see today. Olafjoy Oct 2020 #125

To those criticizing Mineral Man, I only have 2 words to say that perhaps he is too shy to say DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #126

You're far too kind... MineralMan Oct 2020 #130

People have a right to their opinions and concerns just as you do Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #128

I think before I write. MineralMan Oct 2020 #131

Not at all. DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #134

I completely disagree with your OPINION Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #137

Cool! No worries with that! DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #138

"Please state your basis." cwydro Oct 2020 #165

Good one! DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #168

Fine hurple Oct 2020 #135

An asteroid can hit you right now.... DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #136

Actually planning for either outcome as far as our Indivisible asks. calimary Oct 2020 #140

Voting for Biden/Harris is all upside. gulliver Oct 2020 #139

You are entirely correct. BobTheSubgenius Oct 2020 #141

MineralMan....I like your attitude! I support your suggestion 100% n/t Upthevibe Oct 2020 #142

You are basically saying that you can post your opinion ThingsGottaChange Oct 2020 #143

There are very specific terms of service on DU DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #151

Agree. Stay positive. The young vote & the momentum is with our side onetexan Oct 2020 #145

The youth vote could sneak up on them! notinkansas Oct 2020 #146

It's the time for kicking their asses with votes orangecrush Oct 2020 #147

i VOTED MFM008 Oct 2020 #150

I have been incredibly impressed by the turnout in Texas DFW Oct 2020 #152

Totally Agree.. It's "Depressing" to see Cha Oct 2020 #154

Phew! I saw the title and was ready to hit the trash button Sunsky Oct 2020 #155

That's to dark way to dark samplegirl Oct 2020 #156

I have legitimate concerns and history will back me up. hamsterjill Oct 2020 #158

Well said. cwydro Oct 2020 #163

All we can do is do our best. Roisin Ni Fiachra Oct 2020 #161

Stiff upper lip as the British would say. KansasKali Oct 2020 #169