General Discussion

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

16. Lots of people dismissing RCP but they're pretty accurate in their averages.

Mon Nov 2, 2020, 12:01 PM

Nov 2020

It's entirely possible Biden wins the popular vote by 6.8 points. It's also ridiculous to call that tanking.

But people need to realize RCP has proven pretty accurate in the past.

In 2016, their average had Hillary winning by 3.2, she won by 2.1.

In 2012, their average had Obama winning by .7, he won by 3.9.

In 2008, their average had Obama winning by 7.6, he won by 7.3.

In 2004, their average had Bush winning by 1.5, he won by 2.4.

The only year they were off was 2012, and most national polls were off then too.

I don't know if RCP has changed a lot over the years but these numbers are pretty strong.

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WTF is going on with Real Clear Politics??? [View all] SKKY Nov 2020 OP

RCP is a republican, right-leaning outfit Tom Rivers Nov 2020 #1

I am convinced Kornacki is a Republican operative. redstatebluegirl Nov 2020 #6

Agree Cracklin Charlie Nov 2020 #11

Yes I am in agreement with you kimbutgar Nov 2020 #20

A gay Republican makes zero sense to me at all. NurseJackie Nov 2020 #27

Yup, working to save McConnell & co from themselves. nt Hortensis Nov 2020 #15

Interesting. NHK used Real Clear Politics in their reporting for their oregonjen Nov 2020 #2

First, RCP is a right-wing, conservative output organization. LonePirate Nov 2020 #3

I had no clue about RCP being right leaning. Mike 03 Nov 2020 #32

See this link LonePirate Nov 2020 #36

Look at the articles they post daily jcgoldie Nov 2020 #4

It was years before I actually noticed their headlines. lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #9

I didn't really notice either. Mike 03 Nov 2020 #33

It doesn't mirror 538 either VMA131Marine Nov 2020 #5

RCP is right wing - they're ratfucking Dennis Donovan Nov 2020 #7

Thank you. Mike 03 Nov 2020 #34

They never jive; they are far right. It took me years to notice the headlines on their home page. lagomorph777 Nov 2020 #8

They include Trafalgar polls in their averages AmericanCanuck Nov 2020 #10

I'm treating new polls at this point as pretty much meaningless now. ooky Nov 2020 #12

..👍🏼, unless 100 million more people vote tommorow thier polling is of little factor uponit7771 Nov 2020 #25

100 million with made up minds not too different from polls released in the last few days. ooky Nov 2020 #42

Exactly Rice4VP Nov 2020 #44

We have no idea how it will go. KentuckyWoman Nov 2020 #13

They don't weight their polls like 538. The Economist pollster has nothing good to say about RCP Thekaspervote Nov 2020 #14

Lots of people dismissing RCP but they're pretty accurate in their averages. Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #16

You are providing us with cilla4progress Nov 2020 #18

Obama really outperformed the polls with last-minute voters in 2012 Polybius Nov 2020 #26

I think his response to Sandy helped a lot. Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #30

I remember a few friends who are Democrat's criticize that hug Polybius Nov 2020 #31

I don't understand why 538 still weighs Rasmussen BadDog40 Nov 2020 #17

He uses it for more data jcgoldie Nov 2020 #29

They included new RIGHT WING OUTLIER Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP poll assumes trump gets MORE black votes Roland99 Nov 2020 #19

And there is a snowball's chance in hell of that happening. SKKY Nov 2020 #21

Counter point: Who cares what's happening at RCP? Dr. Jack Nov 2020 #22

As long as "The Trafalgar Group" gets factored in, it will skew things. RGTIndy Nov 2020 #23

It's Rasmussen pulling down the average. Yavin4 Nov 2020 #24

The horses are nearing the starting gate, gotta drive up last minute ticket sales, place your bets! Baclava Nov 2020 #28

I looked at the number, which factored in Trafalgar and Rasmussen. shrike3 Nov 2020 #35

They're including GOP pollsters...and the race is getting tighter Azathoth Nov 2020 #37

Nothing.... Willto Nov 2020 #38

Real Clear Politics includes Rasmussen, Trafalgar and polling by Trump's octoberlib Nov 2020 #39

They don't weight polls. Happy Hoosier Nov 2020 #40

They are using junk BGBD Nov 2020 #41

Stop using RCP. They always tilt Republican. clutterbox1830 Nov 2020 #43