Beware the 'blue mirage' and the 'red mirage' on election night [View all]

[JonLP24]

Analysis: Don't fall for what could be misleading early numbers or punditry. Be patient until more votes are counted.

(Snip)

It's likely that in Sun Belt battlegrounds such as Florida, North Carolina and Texas, the first totals to be reported will be huge tranches of mail and early in-person ballots that break heavily for Joe Biden, creating a "blue mirage" in the early tallies that could be erased once Trump-friendly in-person Election Day votes are tabulated.

But the opposite could be true in northern battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where officials are not permitted to begin processing mail ballots until the day of the election (or, in Michigan's case, the day before). In those states, a "red mirage" of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballot.

(snip)

A similar pattern could play out on a much larger scale in next-door Pennsylvania, which has emerged as perhaps both campaigns' most critical state in the final stretch. At least seven counties have said they will not begin counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday morning, and many large counties — including Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's Allegheny — say they may report only partial counts of mail-in ballots on Tuesday night.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/beware-blue-mirage-red-mirage-election-night-n1245925

Posting as a reminder.