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Rstrstx

(1,644 posts)
2. From what is there it's looking good in NV
Wed Nov 4, 2020, 05:21 AM
Nov 2020

If you follow Ralston his predictions have been more insightful than the polls. The point he’s been making rests with Washoe County (Reno), Biden is ahead by about 10,000 votes there and 25,000 statewide. Ralston says a Repub can’t win Nevada unless they’re winning or - at best - tied in Washoe. Right now the raw numbers are running higher for both candidates, indicating turnout is higher than he guessed. But the numbers at this time most resemble his “90/90/45/50” model, where Biden is ahead by 3 points and 25,000 votes. It will probably shift more towards Biden as more of Clark (Las Vegas) gets counted, they’re still only 75% in. If I had to guess I’d say Biden adds another 10k or so, it’s extremely unlikely Trump can add another 25k + whatever deficit needs to be made up in Clark. Nevada is a one-and-a-half city state, 25k votes goes a long ways when the rural counties are so sparsely populated.

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