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qdouble

(891 posts)

2. From a statistical standpoint

Reply to mr_lebowski (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 7, 2020, 03:16 AM

Nov 2020

Accuracy increases with the amount of samples in terms of the probability of correctness, however being wrong never becomes impossible unless you sample everybody...it just becomes less and less probable.

For the most part, when you are estimating what 150 million Americans did based on a sample of 15,000...you have to make certain assumptions. If those assumptions are wrong, it will influence the accuracy.

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Exit Polls can be just as inaccurate as regular polls [View all] qdouble Nov 2020 OP

Specifically, the issue comes from not achieving true randomness in your sampling ... mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #1

From a statistical standpoint qdouble Nov 2020 #2

Depends on how one defines 'being wrong' ... mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #3

When it comes to traditional polls, it's getting harder and harder to get a truly random sample. musicblind Nov 2020 #6

Agree on all counts ... mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #7

Malcolm Nance said that he doesn't see how exit polls, without early voter applegrove Nov 2020 #4

The exit polls are clearly off. qdouble Nov 2020 #5

When you have multiple methods of voting you inherently undermine exit polls mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #8