Exit Polls can be just as inaccurate as regular polls

[musicblind]

6. When it comes to traditional polls, it's getting harder and harder to get a truly random sample.

The sample self-selects in one way or another. Certain people answer phones, and certain people don't. A lot of online polling is opt-in first, and then those sampled are randomly chosen from the opt-in pool.

But, especially when it comes to political polling, people lie. Unlike most posters, I don't think people systemically lie on purpose. I think people believe the lie in the moment, but it still ends up being untrue.

An example:

Polling used to show 1.8% of the population was gay. As a gay man who worked extensively within the gay community, I knew that was B.S. — Then, polls showed 3% — Then, 4.5% — Now there are polls showing 8% to 15% depending on the age group.

People didn't become more gay; people became more willing to admit it—both to pollsters and to themselves.