AZ - update - trump continuing to exceed needed split ratio

[WSHazel]

25. According to AZ Sec of State - 108037 votes left to count

https://www.arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

And all of these votes are not the same. Trump is going to have to do MUCH better than 58.5% with the "ballots ready for tabulation" to catch Biden, because those are the only ones likely to stay on the 58-60% Trump split. These are the "late early" votes that were dropped off same day or in the days leading up to the election, and are likely Trump voters. Once Trump gets through those, the remaining votes are provisionals and problem ballots.

It is unlikely that many of the problem ballots (first column) will be cured, so most of them will not be counted. Of the remaining 45307 provisionals, they are not going to be as Trump friendly. Provisionals generally lean more Democrat or at worst reflect the general split of their county. roughly 35k of the provisionals are from Maricopa, Pima or Apache, all blue counties, and those provisionals should lean blue. It is likely that Biden will net 5-10k from the provisionals.

Unless Trump picks up his pace with the "late early" ballots, he will lose AZ by about 13000 votes.