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In reply to the discussion: To the people saying The Lincoln Project was worthless [View all]Gothmog
(144,919 posts)116. Never Trumpers played a critical role in beating him. The numbers prove it.
Thank you to the Lincoln Project
Link to tweet
Its too early for a definitive evaluation of what happened, because exit polls are no more reliable than pre-election polls. But both the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump (RVAT), the other major Never Trump organization, shared with me preliminary data to show that their work actually played a critical role in Bidens victory. Their numbers are in line with publicly available exit polls showing that nationally 7 percent of 2016 Trump voters and 8 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning voters backed Biden; currently, Biden is leading in the popular vote by 3.4 percentage points.
The Lincoln Project contends that 85 percent of the counties it targeted in 10 states moved away from Trump and that doesnt even include Arizona, where ballots are still being counted and endorsements from Republicans such as Cindy McCain undoubtedly contributed to Bidens lead. The Lincoln Project concludes that, across the top battleground states, Biden flipped an average of 6.8 percent of voters who cast a Trump ballot in 2016. Nationally, it believes, 5 percent of voters who voted for a Republican congressional candidate voted for Biden.
In the battleground states, Lincoln Project asserts that 7 percent of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden in Pennsylvania, 6 percent in Michigan, 7 percent in Wisconsin and 6 percent in Georgia. The swings among independent voters, moderate voters and college-educated White voters away from Trump were even bigger in some cases. Given the narrowness of the outcome in these battleground states (Bidens biggest margin so far is a 2.6-point win in Michigan), those numbers, if accurate, suggest that Republican and Republican-leaning voters helped deliver the election to Biden.
RVATs numbers tell a similar story. In Wisconsin counties where RVAT spent the most, it asserts, Trump underperformed Republican House candidates by seven points. In Pennsylvania counties where RVAT spent the most, it asserts, Trump underperformed Republican House candidates by five points. Again, those are decisive margins in such close states.
While RVAT focused only on the presidential contest, the Lincoln Project also tried to defeat Trump enablers in Senate races. Obviously, the Senate campaigns did not go as well only two Republican incumbents have lost so far. The reasons vary from state to state, but one common theme is that moderate Democrats had trouble winning in red or purple areas when so many progressive activists were talking about defunding the police, socialism, Medicare-for-all, expanding the Supreme Court and banning fracking.
The Lincoln Project contends that 85 percent of the counties it targeted in 10 states moved away from Trump and that doesnt even include Arizona, where ballots are still being counted and endorsements from Republicans such as Cindy McCain undoubtedly contributed to Bidens lead. The Lincoln Project concludes that, across the top battleground states, Biden flipped an average of 6.8 percent of voters who cast a Trump ballot in 2016. Nationally, it believes, 5 percent of voters who voted for a Republican congressional candidate voted for Biden.
In the battleground states, Lincoln Project asserts that 7 percent of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden in Pennsylvania, 6 percent in Michigan, 7 percent in Wisconsin and 6 percent in Georgia. The swings among independent voters, moderate voters and college-educated White voters away from Trump were even bigger in some cases. Given the narrowness of the outcome in these battleground states (Bidens biggest margin so far is a 2.6-point win in Michigan), those numbers, if accurate, suggest that Republican and Republican-leaning voters helped deliver the election to Biden.
RVATs numbers tell a similar story. In Wisconsin counties where RVAT spent the most, it asserts, Trump underperformed Republican House candidates by seven points. In Pennsylvania counties where RVAT spent the most, it asserts, Trump underperformed Republican House candidates by five points. Again, those are decisive margins in such close states.
While RVAT focused only on the presidential contest, the Lincoln Project also tried to defeat Trump enablers in Senate races. Obviously, the Senate campaigns did not go as well only two Republican incumbents have lost so far. The reasons vary from state to state, but one common theme is that moderate Democrats had trouble winning in red or purple areas when so many progressive activists were talking about defunding the police, socialism, Medicare-for-all, expanding the Supreme Court and banning fracking.
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Not sure about that part. I've caught wind that 3% MORE republicans voted for donald
Volaris
Nov 2020
#54
After so many self-described "progressives" called voters of color "establishment shills"
ehrnst
Nov 2020
#30
People say anything and everything. Not all is useful or right and a lot is bat ...s***......
Srkdqltr
Nov 2020
#12
To the people who think they are their allies. 1. only 1. You will see the LP target Biden
Autumn
Nov 2020
#19
Yes, people do think they are Democratic allies. In fact some have suggested the LP has a home in
Autumn
Nov 2020
#31
I think TLP did something that our side is still incapable of, marketing good candidates
ffr
Nov 2020
#34
trump responded on twitter to The Lincoln Project, therefore TLP had an effect on trump, at least
Hermit-The-Prog
Nov 2020
#49
Most people upset about LP are the types that booed Hillary and other Democrats in 2016
JI7
Nov 2020
#53
I hate to imagine how this would have turned out if they HADN'T weighed in
StarfishSaver
Nov 2020
#62
We're staying in the fight: to defeat Trumpism we must also defeat David Perdue.
Gothmog
Nov 2020
#115
I'm A Former Republican. I Donated to the Lincoln Project. I Also Donated to Biden-Harris And....
COL Mustard
Nov 2020
#68
Absolutely. And that's what Trumper's don't understand. Their false sense of patriotism is rooted in
Pepsidog
Nov 2020
#93
OP, people say all kinds of stuff.... most of us luv LP ads and we know that they were directed at
Kashkakat v.2.0
Nov 2020
#108