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mathematic

(1,607 posts)

33. This is literally an explanation for how polling companies "fucked up"

Wed Nov 25, 2020, 04:10 PM

Nov 2020

Somehow you managed to turn an explanation for why the polls were wrong into a demand for explanations on why the polls were wrong.

Furthermore, this is not "baseless" guessing (nor was it even written by nate silver or 538 staff). At its core, this explanation is that poll non-responders are overwhelmingly supportive of trump. Accounting for this would represent a meaningful change in how polls are conducted. However there's no clear way to generally account for the political preferences of people that don't respond to polls.

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538 "Could Social Alienation Among Some Trump Supporters Help Explain Why Polls Underestimated Trump [View all] NRaleighLiberal Nov 2020 OP

Interesting n/t TexasBushwhacker Nov 2020 #1

These "socially and civically" disengaged and ignorant Ninga Nov 2020 #2

It's funny. They will throw a lot of reasons why polls were off and see if something sticks. jimfields33 Nov 2020 #3

"nobody answers their phones" does NOT explain the difference unless... Silent3 Nov 2020 #6

That's interesting. Thank you for providing that explanation. jimfields33 Nov 2020 #7

The AP poll was conducted with a postcard contact first, not a phone call. Captain Zero Nov 2020 #22

That's actually not a bad way to do a survey. jimfields33 Nov 2020 #28

I think it's as simple as typical polling errors. Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #37

Interesting, but I think all polls are "off" RazzleCat Nov 2020 #4

Agreed - 538 did a podcast on this recently, noting the horrendous percentage of poll respondants vs NRaleighLiberal Nov 2020 #5

Again, as I just said to some else, not answering the phone doesn't explain this... Silent3 Nov 2020 #8

If a very small group (5%) of people participate in polls, radius777 Nov 2020 #41

+1 dalton99a Nov 2020 #9

They're not off in other countries with more cell phone usage, no US POLLING SUCKS !!! uponit7771 Nov 2020 #31

This is an unsolvable problem. Too many unchangeable negative factors Roisin Ni Fiachra Nov 2020 #10

If Trump kept telling you that CNN and the NY Times were "fake news"... brooklynite Nov 2020 #11

I think a lot of them participate in the surveys and lie. nt. Mariana Nov 2020 #13

That would show in the raw data... brooklynite Nov 2020 #18

Anomie - caused by agricultural industrialization and the collapse of manufacturing Klaralven Nov 2020 #12

They are very alienated. That's why they are living in a bubble. TheBlackAdder Nov 2020 #14

Pollsters simply underestimated how likely the deplorables were to vote. LonePirate Nov 2020 #15

I'm not sure why anyone would think random polls should even work today. gulliver Nov 2020 #16

I'm an introvert by nature, and the pandemic has increased the measure that bullwinkle428 Nov 2020 #17

I still think voter suppression had a lot to do with it Tribetime Nov 2020 #19

The polls are always off due to voter suppression BadDog40 Nov 2020 #20

It's actually not that simple, though. BannonsLiver Nov 2020 #27

The premise may be false. So any conclusion is invalidated. triron Nov 2020 #21

+1 crickets Nov 2020 #26

Ths sounds like more excuse reaching. Simple answer is we don't know why yet. fearnobush Nov 2020 #23

Also I don't think defund had as big a roll as the M$M plays that out to be. fearnobush Nov 2020 #25

Trump's team knew about the Social Alienation variable Yavin4 Nov 2020 #24

Trump made his way in live appealing to those who believe they were given a bad hand in life. Dawson Leery Nov 2020 #29

Hate Radio has been telling listeners to lie to pollsters, over and over every day. Midnight Writer Nov 2020 #30

**BULL FUCKIN SHIT!** NO Other Country Has Polling This Bad !!! Down Ballot Polling was HORRIBLE ... uponit7771 Nov 2020 #32

This is literally an explanation for how polling companies "fucked up" mathematic Nov 2020 #33

No its not, no polling company gave this explanation to Silvers he's guessing. PERIOD uponit7771 Nov 2020 #34

A campaign to lie continuously to MSM polling firms and say they were applegrove Nov 2020 #35

Polls were not all off. Biden campaign manager said that things were close JI7 Nov 2020 #36

National polls have a history of being off. Drunken Irishman Nov 2020 #38

I'm still surprised at how wrong Florida was. And how Biden underperformed compared to Hillary Buckeyeblue Nov 2020 #39

It's shame, not alienation scrabblequeen40 Nov 2020 #40