How will the GA Runoffs play out...... [View all]

[Takket]

There are a number of factors here. First let's look at the raw numbers from the election:

Perdue
49.7%
2,462,617
Ossoff
47.9%
2,374,519
Hazel
2.3%
115,039

Raphael Warnock
Democratic Party
32.9%
1,617,035
Kelly Loeffler
Republican Party
25.9%
1,273,214

Others:
41.2%
2,024,112

The two major factors here are:
1. Getting as many people who already voted for you to show up and vote again (i.e. not losing as much support because turnout will be lower).
2. Getting as many of persons as possible who DIDN'T vote for you in the general (because they either voted for your opponent or went third party or voted for a different Dem/GOP in the special election (this applies to Warnock/Loeffler only)

Ossoff has ground to make up meaning he needs to get as many Hazel voters are possible, and get better turnout than Perdue. As reason why I would love to see Democrats "signal boosting" the call for MAGAts to protest the election. We want this idea to take hold.

As for Warnock, he lead on election day but if you look at that 41.2% of "others":

1,152,906 voted GOP (add Loeffler's total 2,426,120 voted GOP)
761,227 voted Dem (add Warnock's total and 2,378,262 voted Dem)
109,979 voted third party.

So again... we have some ground to make up assuming everyone who votes in the runoff will be loyal to their party. Dividing up the 3rd party vote will be crucial... and turnout will win the election...... (what else is new?)

I fear the third party vote quite a bit because with Dems holding the white house and house, I could easily see most of them voting GOP to hold the senate for the rethugs out of fear of one party having total control........ especially knowing with drumpf out of the picture there is no need to vote against him to check his power.......