General Discussion

LiberalFighter

(53,544 posts)

58. Who are the experts? What is their expertise with voter data?

Thu Jan 14, 2021, 06:27 PM

Jan 2021

How do they account for people moving in and out of an area? That would impact birthdays.

Did they take into account that voter registration methods change over time? From no registration needed. To register but date of birth not needed. From voter registration on paper and filed in a filing system. To transferring registration from paper to computer by data input operators. To online voter registration.

Did they compare the birthdays with the general population. All of the people? Did they take into account events in history that impacted births?

Did they compare the birthdays with another group like students in the local community?

I did a comparison with my month and day and it came up 49 times in a database of 13,597. If each birthday had the same number of people there should be 17,885 people in that database. With about 37 people for each birthday. But it was 31.5% higher than the average.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

66 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

I need some debunking help, arguing against math-based claims of voter fraud in PA [View all] Bucky Jan 2021 OP

Brings to mind an aphorism from the office...there's liars, damn liars and statisticians. lol n/t CincyDem Jan 2021 #1

This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Jan 2021 #3

Define suspicious birthdays Jerry2144 Jan 2021 #2

It's in the article. They're reporting an unlikely occurrence of DOBs on the 5th, 10th, 15th, & 20th Bucky Jan 2021 #8

It is still meaningless Jerry2144 Jan 2021 #37

Do they offer the years along with the days? angstlessk Jan 2021 #39

I only skimmed that article Hav Jan 2021 #56

If people do not provide a birthday they will choose Jan 1,1900 Bev54 Jan 2021 #34

birthdays? for real? stillcool Jan 2021 #4

Is the data even correct? LeftInTX Jan 2021 #5

Who the hell knows? I don't know how to go about looking up the answer Bucky Jan 2021 #13

I don't know of any Snopes or anything..the amount of data here is too much for an amateur LeftInTX Jan 2021 #28

Well the birthday stuff is cherry picked horseshit ismnotwasm Jan 2021 #6

I imagine so. But do you have a math-based argument to support that claim? Bucky Jan 2021 #15

If you're fighting fire with fire, try The Birthday Paradox: Denzil_DC Jan 2021 #55

Do you mean meth-based claims? mobeau69 Jan 2021 #7

LOL! Bucky Jan 2021 #25

Note lack of links to studies Bobstandard Jan 2021 #59

They were using a default date when the birth date exboyfil Jan 2021 #9

I thought of that, but the "default date" computerized registrations use are always the 1st... Bucky Jan 2021 #17

I have no idea what a suspicious birthday is JonLP24 Jan 2021 #10

The full article does. It's the high frequency of DOBs landing on the 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th, etc Bucky Jan 2021 #18

Everything they use to "expose" fraud ends up being 100% horseshit. Don't even play the game. kysrsoze Jan 2021 #11

I'm dealing with someone being suckered into their worldview, not the bullshitters themselves Bucky Jan 2021 #21

i was given an assignment in a statistics class KayF Jan 2021 #12

Yes, "what the judge said when he took it to court" is exactly what I need. Bucky Jan 2021 #30

There is no fact on the face of the Earth frazzled Jan 2021 #14

I'm not taking the lazy way out. Sorry Bucky Jan 2021 #31

Knock yourself out frazzled Jan 2021 #33

Here's compiled links debunking voter fraud, inc Pennsylvania blm Jan 2021 #16

Wait, are you saying voter fraud in PA hasn't been debunked? Bucky Jan 2021 #35

Links Debunking fraud INCLUDING Pennsylvania. blm Jan 2021 #51

Two things come to mind. Pobeka Jan 2021 #19

Thanks. Bucky Jan 2021 #38

The wording isn't even clear! Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2021 #20

Yeah, bad mathematicians tend to write like that. Bucky Jan 2021 #40

I majored in math (and physics), so I've seen... Buckeye_Democrat Jan 2021 #46

Don't try to challenge the data: you won't win brooklynite Jan 2021 #22

Good argument TheRealNorth Jan 2021 #29

Good stuff. nt Quixote1818 Jan 2021 #32

This is good, but I'm good at doing those types of meta arguments. They're not persuasive. Bucky Jan 2021 #41

You could tell this person to download the datasets and look themselves LeftInTX Jan 2021 #49

This... LeftInTX Jan 2021 #43

If you must argue with a nut job then SharonClark Jan 2021 #44

Here you go Binkie The Clown Jan 2021 #23

THIS was what I was looking for! Thanks! Bucky Jan 2021 #45

I'm a math nerd, so I'm subscribed to his channel. :) nt Binkie The Clown Jan 2021 #47

Don't waste your time arguing with idiots and bad faith fascists greenjar_01 Jan 2021 #24

I'm arguing with someone being pulled by mathy talk from the gullible middle Bucky Jan 2021 #48

Would really need to see more on the methodology.... TheRealNorth Jan 2021 #26

I started reading that analysis about anomalies regarding vote updates Hav Jan 2021 #27

Yeah, that was my takeaway too. Bucky Jan 2021 #54

german nazis had all kinds of data and statistics to prove their claims nt msongs Jan 2021 #36

And science! OilemFirchen Jan 2021 #61

You are most likely wasting your time. These people get angry when presented with Irish_Dem Jan 2021 #42

The courts repeatedly said there is no evidence of fraud SoonerPride Jan 2021 #50

Tell him he should report what he knows. gibraltar72 Jan 2021 #52

You can't argue people out of their religious beliefs. Mariana Jan 2021 #53

The Second One Is Statistical Nonsense ProfessorGAC Jan 2021 #57

Who are the experts? What is their expertise with voter data? LiberalFighter Jan 2021 #58

They didn't factor in the MPVFB*. OilemFirchen Jan 2021 #60

Yesterday nine of my FB friends had birthdays. Today only one. onenote Jan 2021 #62

This looks like complete and utter bullshit and quackery BumRushDaShow Jan 2021 #63

Faulty "Assumptions" is their main problem. mackdaddy Jan 2021 #64

If this is just facebook debating, I suggest you turn it off. rgbecker Jan 2021 #65

This leaves out three salient points... jmowreader Jan 2021 #66