The Problem With the Pew Poll

[cthulu2016]

8. That requires substituting my assumptions for data

I can look at a poll result and say, "I do not think that will happen." Perhaps latino voters get more excited about elections at the last minute.

I am not saying that the result is certain to match voting behavior a month from now.

I am, however, saying that if more Latinos, for whatever reason, are telling pollsters they are less than 100% certain to vote then the pollster cannot arbitrarily count them as likely voters.

Polls are measurements, not predictions.

Imagine if latinos this year were telling pollsters they are going to vote 100%.

Could the pollster reduce the latino weighting in likely voters because the pollster didn't buy the result because that was a lot higher than they actually voted in 2008?