General Discussion

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)

25. And let me try to assuage your concerns like so

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 07:02 PM

Oct 2012

Intrade has held steady from before and after this announcement.

Intrade cannot be expected to predict the future accurately. It is a market. It is a bunch of people's best guesses interacting to set a price on a contract.

What it can be expected to do - because it is an efficient market, in this sense - is to immediately incorporate widely available public news.

There's no such thing as "a slow reaction" to something that is actually important new news.

If there were, well, then, any one of us could essentially start printing money.

There have to be reasons for Intrade to treat this "news" with hardly a ripple.

And I don't think it's because people are waiting to see how Joe Biden does, because anyone who trades is willing, if the trade does what they wanted it to do, to move in and out of a trade within a day.

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FAUX News Poll Romney 46/ Obama 45 LV Oct 7 to Oct 9 [View all] jezebel Oct 2012 OP

Not bad Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #1

I just checked. Its 46-44 Obama/Romney. jezebel Oct 2012 #3

That is the most frustrating thing about this election... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #5

Post-debate, pre-jobs report, huh? sadbear Oct 2012 #2

No. It was taken between Oct. 7th to Oct. 9th... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #4

The chances that FAUX News was going to publish a poll at odds with the narrative they favor jsmirman Oct 2012 #6

So how do you explain the September numbers where Obama led by 5%? Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #14

Fox 'news" is not a credible news channel, they never were. This includes their "polls". AlinPA Oct 2012 #17

Is Ipsos credible? Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #18

Yes, reasonably so. But with all the crap Fox "news" transmits, people respect their �polls�? AlinPA Oct 2012 #19

Hannity and Rove don't go out there and poll people Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #22

Defending Fox �news� as credible just because they publish a number that happens to agree with some AlinPA Oct 2012 #23

Bullshit. Impossibly simple. jsmirman Oct 2012 #20

August poll: Romney 45, Obama 44 ProSense Oct 2012 #7

I never believed for a second that Fox does anything to promote public awareness...... busterbrown Oct 2012 #8

That's a very intricate conspiracy theory Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #11

Exactly! Very Clever...... busterbrown Oct 2012 #30

it is not horrible. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #9

That is near enough for Obama to still be ahead in enough swing states. Democratopia Oct 2012 #10

Has anyone else noticed that Romney is always stuck between 46-47%? aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #12

Look at these numbers for Romney in the FOX news poll aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #13

Again - do people seriously think Fox was going to publish a poll showing the bounce dissipating? jsmirman Oct 2012 #15

Would you say the Fox poll is in line, worse, or better than others from a similar period? Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #16

I don't understand your question, prosense has likely answered it in this thread jsmirman Oct 2012 #21

The conspiratorial view would work if Fox had put Romney ahead by more than 1% Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #24

You are getting to the point of being ridiculous jsmirman Oct 2012 #26

Are you he who determines the purity of post-debate dates? Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #28

The idea that we're not all waiting to see post-jobs number days jsmirman Oct 2012 #29

Are you sure you will believe all polls conducted post-jobs-report? Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #32

I'm not a poll denier. This is FOX FUCKING NEWS. jsmirman Oct 2012 #33

has any expert discussed the relationship between Intrade and polls? Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #34

It's a market. Like any market. If this were significant news, it would have moved it. jsmirman Oct 2012 #35

Something must have happened since the Fox poll, because it's 61.6% now Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #37

Think of why the body of your post doesn't make sense jsmirman Oct 2012 #39

62.8% now, btw jsmirman Oct 2012 #40

I seriously think you need to answer as to whether you are aware that this is the first jsmirman Oct 2012 #27

You are misinformed, and your reasoning is strange Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #31

And let me try to assuage your concerns like so jsmirman Oct 2012 #25

This FUX with News poll is screwed up. tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #36

Estimated 67 million people saw the debate but Fox poll puts it way too high at 78% Democratopia Oct 2012 #38