Will there be a fourth COVID-19 surge?

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

20. When my sister who lives in Kansas came to visit me (I'm in New Mexico)

it's a long enough drive that she took two days. Coming here, she stopped en route somewhere in Oklahoma, outside of Tulsa, I think. She was appalled and disgusted that no one was masked. On the way back she took my advice and bypassed Oklahoma, making the overnight stop in Liberal KS, where everyone she dealt with was masked.

(She came here despite the pandemic because I'd had a heart attack and wanted to be with me and take care of me. Wonderful sister!)

I'm someone who in the past did a fair amount of travel. I'd go to four or five different science fiction things each year, drive to visit family and friends in Tucson or the Kansas City area, or go somewhere just as a tourist. Last year on March 1st, I boarded a Holland America ship in San Diego and went to Hawaii. 18 days altogether and it was a wonderful trip. All along we felt incredibly safe from the burgeoning virus. I happen to love cruising. Hawaii was my second only cruise, and I am looking forward to doing more down the road. But I do understand that a lot of things, cruise ships among them, are going to be profoundly changed. All I, or any of us, can do, is see how it all plays out.

All any of us can do is wear masks, stay reasonably and realistically isolated, and just wait this out.

I'll add this, and I've been saying this since perhaps June of last year. Pretend it's the spring of 1939 and you and I are planning a trip to Europe next year. It is going to be fantastic! We've been planning this for a couple of years now, working at extra jobs, saving every penny possible. We don't have all the details worked out, but we'll be going to London, Paris, Rome, perhaps the French Riviera, maybe Spain. We can hardly wait! Then September rolls around and WWII breaks out. Oh, crap. Looks like we won't be going to Europe next year, but we're optimistic that the war won't last very long and we can do it in 1941. But the war drags on. And on. It doesn't finally end in Europe until May, 1945. The soonest we might possibly take that long-postponed trip is 1946. More likely a year or two later. And when we finally get there, it will be a vastly different Europe from the one of 1939.

And so it's going to be with this pandemic. No, there won't be bombed out cities, but the changes are going to be more far-reaching than we think. I am not about to make any predictions about what they will be, but if you think about Europe in 1939 vs Europe in 1946, that might be helpful. For me, travel has been an important part of my life. In recent years, the rare times I've flown, I've booked a first class seat. It's been worthwhile to me. In the future, I'm not sure the first class travel will be what it was. In recent years I've been attending various science fiction things: Mile Hi Con in Denver, Bubonicon in Albuquerque, several others. I know and am friends with a bunch of s-f authors and love attending these. Some of these things have gone on line. For me, I can hardly wait for the real cons to return.

I have a young friend who is with the Austin Playhouse, and last night I watched an on-line performance of a play. In all honesty, the only reason I purchased the ticket because of my connection to that young friend, and about twenty minutes in I almost logged off. But I stayed, and I'm glad I did. I also get that normal performance of things like plays just aren't possible right now, and I absolutely need to support things like this playhouse as much as I can.

A book club I'm connected to has been doing Zoom meetings for about a year now. Since it's in a different city from the one I live in, if they ever go back to regular in person meetings, I'll be shut out.

It's not all just winning or losing. It's changes that spread across society and affect each of us individually.