Romney is finished [View all]

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I never thought that Romney had a chance for the nomination.

The Evangelical base would overlook any other fault in order not to have to support a Mormon.

From an establishment point of view he is damaged goods. Knowing the way they think their logic is that McCain was a terrible compaigner and he wiped Romney.

This time around Romney is not using tens of millions of personal dollars and while he has raised a lot of money most of it is from donors that have given the maximum.

That $ 10k bet misstep wasn't an ordinary misstep. It killed any possibility of him raising small donations.

Romney needs not just a win in NH but a commanding win because he foolishly moved there thinking that it would help him seal the deal. Not only didn't it add any support for him but in undermines his performance. If he wins it means little because it is his 'home' state. If he loses there they will say 'he can't win anywhere'.

One month ago Romney had a 27 point lead
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/22/nh-2012-primary-41-romney_n_1107372.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
41% Romney
14% Gingrich
14% Paul
9% Huntsman
8% Cain
3% Santorum
2% Perry
1% Bachmann
1% Karger
1% Roemer


Today Romney has a 10 point lead

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/nh-2012-primary-33-romney_n_1146278.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
33% Romney
22% Gingrich
18% Paul
10% Huntsman
3% Perry
3% Bachmann
3% Santorum


But a closer look at the numbers is even worse for Romney.

Between the two polls (and there are others that confirm today's results) Cain left the race freeing up 8% to be split among the other candidates.

Romney not only didn't pick up any support he lost some. While Gingrich picked up a lot, Paul picked up some (and all of the others picked up a little) Romney is the only one to have lost support.

One in five Romney supporters has left him in the last month.

And it gets worse.

The latest IA poll shows Romney in a weak third showing


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/ia-2012-primary-22-gingri_n_1146421.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
22% Gingrich
21% Paul
16% Romney
11% Bachmann
9% Perry
8% Santorum
5% Huntsman
1% Johnson

Right now he is only 5 points from 4th place and ONLY 8 POINTS AWAY FROM 6TH PLACE.

No one has more pressure on him on the next debate, and we all know how well he does under pressure!.

All of this hasn't gone unnoticed on Intrade where Romney shares on the nomination have lost 40% of the value in the last 4 weeks falling from a high of 70 to 40.

All of this is looking very grim for Romney because if he comes in a weak third or worse in Iowa his main message of "electability" will evaporate in NH and his campaign will collapse.

If you thought it was a zoo before, after NH the inmates will be taking over the asylum, in any case Cain's departure from the field showed that Romney has hit a very low and hard ceiling, that as people change their mind they don't choose him and some of the people that did choose him before are changing their mind.

As I have noted elsewhere all of this reinforces the liklihood of an open convention and a new set of candidates drafted from the floor, i.e. some Republican Governor.