General Discussion

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

5. You are still operating on the old rules where a winner got all of the delegates.

Wed Dec 14, 2011, 03:59 AM

Dec 2011

With the change to proportional primaries (27 in all) no one in a vigorous 3 way race will get 51%. Remember 08 and how just 2 Democratic candidates went deep into the calendar with proportional primaries.

Had Edwards stayed in and gotten only5-7 of the vote then it would have gone to the convention.

Now that the Republicans have adopted proportional rather than winner take all primaries it will be impossible for anyone to rap it up if there are 4 viable candidates and no one drops out.

Last time Huckabee stayed on the trail until McCain had 51% of the delegates statistically tied up and this time there is less affection betweent he candidates.

And so far the superdelegates have largely decided to sit it out.

http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

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Romney is finished [View all] grantcart Dec 2011 OP

No one will be drafted from the floor. One of these clowns will emerge. And that's it. RBInMaine Dec 2011 #1

You are still operating on the old rules where a winner got all of the delegates. grantcart Dec 2011 #5

I'm not so sure. There's still plenty of time for Newt to implode. AtomicKitten Dec 2011 #2

He's a runaway train. A train that will go off the cliff, imo. n/t deacon Dec 2011 #13

Newtie will be AWOL* by April SpiralHawk Dec 2011 #15

Good synopsis Old and In the Way Dec 2011 #3

I disagree.... JohnnyRingo Dec 2011 #4

They have lots of people who look good in suits but don't have his baggage grantcart Dec 2011 #6

Agreed Sherman A1 Dec 2011 #9

I am all but certain it will go to the Convention. Firebrand Gary Dec 2011 #7

The 'fat lady' ain't even started yet! nt jannyk Dec 2011 #8

She's still gargling her lemon juice. Chipper Chat Dec 2011 #11

Yes probably so. SammyWinstonJack Dec 2011 #12

Who are the governors that have a shot? n/t RainDog Dec 2011 #10

They have 29 and they aren't all idiots grantcart Dec 2011 #21

When I hear Romney sendero Dec 2011 #14

Mr. Chairman, the Great State of Louisiana is proud to nominate Owlet Dec 2011 #16

The problem with Bobby Jindal is he isn't a very good orator. LAGC Dec 2011 #17

Just saw a couple of Ron Paul ads this morning that pick Newtie to pieces Skidmore Dec 2011 #18

FWIW, Intrade currently shows Romney at 49% and Newt at 32%. pampango Dec 2011 #19

But Romney was 70 just a few weeks ago and the key in a primary is momentum grantcart Dec 2011 #20

On Intrade, Romney seems to have regained momentum DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #22

We definitely aren't looking at the same charts grantcart Dec 2011 #23

I've been watching the percentages on the main page DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #24

Now I am confused when you hit on Gingrich's graph how do you conclude that he is slipping, grantcart Dec 2011 #25

There's an inconsistency there that confuses me DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #27

And now it's Romney 52.9%, Gingrich 28.2% DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #39

Right now on Intrade: Romney 61%, Gingrich 15% DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #45

I still don't see a brokered covention sufrommich Dec 2011 #26

Let's ask it this way. Currently no candidate is getting more than 35% in any one primary. grantcart Dec 2011 #31

It would be very hard for it to stay a 3 way race though. sufrommich Dec 2011 #37

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh grantcart Dec 2011 #42

This leads to an obvious question-- Jackpine Radical Dec 2011 #28

No because I don't think anybody in the primaries is going to be the nominee grantcart Dec 2011 #32

That's interesting speculation. Jackpine Radical Dec 2011 #38

I would look at this team grantcart Dec 2011 #43

The Republican machine is firing up behind Romney taught_me_patience Dec 2011 #29

Rick Perry, Mitt Romney internals show Newt Gingrich slippage, sources say DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #30

Interesting, especially the last two paragraphs grantcart Dec 2011 #35

If Romney doesn't get the nomination this time DavidDvorkin Dec 2011 #36

Who are the people who would vote for Newt Gingrich!? Fire Walk With Me Dec 2011 #33

High end jewelry sales persons grantcart Dec 2011 #34

and divorce lawyers aint_no_life_nowhere Dec 2011 #40

LOL! Wind Dancer Dec 2011 #41

An old college classmate of mine is actually heading up Newt's local campaign. Tommy_Carcetti Dec 2011 #46

It'll be Jeb. They miss having a shrub in the WH. n/t Scuba Dec 2011 #44