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Voltaire2

(15,377 posts)

70. Each surface has to be infected.

Reply to DontBelieveEastisEas (Reply #64)

Wed Apr 7, 2021, 04:42 PM

Apr 2021

The cdc claim was 1:10000 infected surface contacts.

Your data is off by several orders of magnitude.

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Surface Contact Spread of COVID is Real [View all] DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 OP

That would assume you're never washing your hands between any of those "touches" oldsoftie Apr 2021 #1

Far, Far, Far Less Likely ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #22

I like your thinking DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #37

The Chemistry Doesn't Work For Me ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #43

Thank you for putting it into real scientific terms. oldsoftie Apr 2021 #48

This whole area of viral transmission has occupied my thoughts quite a bit recently... Hugin Apr 2021 #54

Viral Transmission information in post #86 just below here DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #87

You should consider making your simulation an OP unto itself. Hugin Apr 2021 #88

Sars 2 Loves the Mouth DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #86

That's crazy. we can do it Apr 2021 #2

What is the likelihood that someone will touch 100 contaminated surfaces a day onenote Apr 2021 #3

Unless they have a severe case of OCD. n/t Yavin4 Apr 2021 #25

Well, let's see. Before COVID my daily work routine was like this Withywindle Apr 2021 #51

And what is the likelihood that all -- or even most of those surfaces are contaminated? onenote Apr 2021 #61

Considering that CTA serves about a million people every day Withywindle Apr 2021 #62

Contamination by respiration DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #65

I have ALWAYS washed my hands as soon as I return home from public. -nt CrispyQ Apr 2021 #4

That's not the way it works. Ocelot II Apr 2021 #5

Thanks for posting, beat me to it. I was going mental over the poor maths. Celerity Apr 2021 #63

median person had COVID before day 67 DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #64

Each surface has to be infected. Voltaire2 Apr 2021 #70

Magnitude DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #77

Oooof greenjar_01 Apr 2021 #6

That's not how statistics work. Cuthbert Allgood Apr 2021 #7

I didn't take statistics in college and I still knew it was wrong. Ocelot II Apr 2021 #9

Sometimes it's staggering what people don't get about statistics. Cuthbert Allgood Apr 2021 #11

Statistically, 4 in 7 people ... Whiskeytide Apr 2021 #42

I know. DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #47

I failed a statistcs course in college and I knew it was wrong nt csziggy Apr 2021 #73

You are right. DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #10

I did a simulation of the situation. DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #66

Actual numbers derived via simulation. Hugin Apr 2021 #76

*less than* 1 in 10,000 Pobeka Apr 2021 #8

The simple facts are the best to adhere to in this case... Moostache Apr 2021 #12

Look at how successful Taiwan has been. oldsoftie Apr 2021 #49

You should be washing your hands anyway spinbaby Apr 2021 #13

There are zero cases of infection confirmed to have occurred by fomite transmission. Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #14

Case reports indicate that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted between people by touching surfaces DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #17

Find me a documented case. Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #20

No Proof DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #28

Not correct. Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #31

No, just well suspected. nt DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #34

Of course it's real BannonsLiver Apr 2021 #15

Me Too DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #16

You put alcohol on your apples? Treefrog Apr 2021 #18

Yes, Yes, And Yes, WowZa !!! nt DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #19

You cannot "avoid autoimmune disease." Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #21

Viruses have been considered as major environmental factors that trigger the autoimmune phenomena DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #24

They are not caused by a virus. Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #35

As An MS Patient, I Agree ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #46

Similar experience with my daughter - Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #56

Other Than Blindness In One Eye... ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #57

It's such an unpredictable illness - Ms. Toad Apr 2021 #59

That It Is! ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #60

No question DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #58

Thank you. Treefrog Apr 2021 #55

Who Said Otherwise? ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #23

brooklynite & Ms. Toad. probably amongst many others DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #26

Nearly Zero? ProfessorGAC Apr 2021 #45

I had more DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #50

If surface contact could be an effective transmission of COVID... Yavin4 Apr 2021 #27

Deaths are staggering DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #29

There are have 2.87 million deaths worldwide. Yavin4 Apr 2021 #32

The raw statistics say somewhere around 5000 have contracted the COVID-19 virus... Hugin Apr 2021 #30

How did you come up with those numbers? nt DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #33

The CDC itself says up-to 1 in 10000 COVID cases are caused by surface transmission. Hugin Apr 2021 #39

Not Correct DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #40

Okay, work through it yourself. n/t Hugin Apr 2021 #41

Work through what? Voltaire2 Apr 2021 #69

My point is the risk of surface transfer infection is non-zero. Hugin Apr 2021 #74

I've been wondering if pay phones are still around. lpbk2713 Apr 2021 #36

Just wash and sanitize your hands frequently throughout the day. beaglelover Apr 2021 #38

Yeah, I don't think the CDC should reverse course on this ecstatic Apr 2021 #44

But we have to be careful that we dont end up with more resistant bugs because of it. oldsoftie Apr 2021 #52

Good point. Oh well. I doubt these places are really cleaning the way ecstatic Apr 2021 #78

I've flown Delta about 6 times since all this started. oldsoftie Apr 2021 #82

Parody?? Nt USALiberal Apr 2021 #53

Your assumptions are wrong. Voltaire2 Apr 2021 #67

The probability of an infection each time you touch a contaminated surface is less then 1/10,000 Kaleva Apr 2021 #68

Yes, and the probability isn't cumulative. Ocelot II Apr 2021 #75

Simulation DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #79

Covid is a respiratory disease. Ocelot II Apr 2021 #83

Covid is a MOUTH disease. (also) DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #84

I wash my hands of course. Learned that in Kindergarten. But consider the flu...regular flu Demsrule86 Apr 2021 #71

COVID is Highly Contagious DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #81

I believe that is because many in our country won't follow the basic safety requirments...wear a Demsrule86 Apr 2021 #90

Uh, that is not at all how statistics work, but ok Sympthsical Apr 2021 #72

This didn't go well for you. nt USALiberal Apr 2021 #80

It is not over yet. nt DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 2021 #85

Never got behind the whole surface fetish... Wounded Bear Apr 2021 #89