How "Likely" are Latinos? [View all]
My thoughts are that they are not being calculated into the "Likely" category, not unlike what happened in Nevada in 2010, and will be coming out to support Barack Obama in unprecedented numbers. Unprecedented.
Prosense posted this OP last Wednesday, discussing how the Latino vote saved Harry Reid (and the country) from Sharon Angle.
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630
Today, UrbScotty posted this new poll showing Obama AHEAD in AZ among LV!
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/5079b24debcabf376f000012
This information should be telling us something...something that we had already felt intuitively - that the recent Romney surge, which coincided with a switch to LV methodology, is skewed because our perception of what makes a person "likely" to vote has not kept up with reality. We often talk casually about the changing demographics of America, but are we integrating those changes in real time, or are we waiting till after the fact to adapt our methods for vote predictions?
Seems like a pretty damned important question. Does anybody know that answer? How likely are Latinos?
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