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In reply to the discussion: Things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Nate Silver [View all]grantcart
(53,061 posts)93. Let's stick with your first point
How have the polls changed
Kaplan goes on Russian radio and talks extensively about a whole series of polls that he has just completed and is now doing.
None are published. He does go and register a political action committe so that he can raise money and spend it on behalf of candidates he supports.
Tell me when in US history has a pollster announced polls, not published them and then gone to try and raise money to spend on candidates.
Then 6 months later he becomes the most prolific pollster in the country even though he has no staff and claims he is making no money.
As for his polls RCP is much easier to manipulate because it has the all of the polls on a single page.
Ohio
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls
23 polls and only 3 show Romney leading
Gravis
ARG
WeAskAmerica
All 3 are highly discredited right wing pollsters. Everyone else has Obama ahead.
North Carolina
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
basically all of the polls are showing either Romney or Obama within the Margin of Error.
Gravis is the only one that shows it being significant just under double digits with a +9.
So you are impressed with Gravis Colorado poll showing Obama ahead.
Well you are easy to impress. They came out with the most laughable poll of the season on October 4th in Colorado showing Romney ahead of Obama with African Americans here
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf
Then two days later in an effort to fix their obvious fuck up they immediately publish another Colorado poll showing Obama back up.
I could go on but you are obviously a die hard Republican who will again be embarassed when Kaplan is completed revealed as the con artist he is.
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The G.O.P. polling strategy is so obvious that it discredits any commentater who falls for it.
Tom Rinaldo
Oct 2012
#1
What are you suggesting? If the Dems try to beat them at the hypnotic hoodwinking game
anAustralianobserver
Oct 2012
#89
They were clearly chomping at the bit for more of a horse race to this thing.
Warren DeMontague
Oct 2012
#58
Especially when they made a miraculous 500 calls in Pennsylvania in just a couple of hours.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#6
Get real. Two weeks ago the pollsters suddenly switched from Registered Voters (RVs) to....
OldDem2012
Oct 2012
#114
Denver and Colorado Springs are home to most of Colorado's African-American population
jayschool
Oct 2012
#122
Name 6 major Democratic poling firms that are cited in the MSM. now...
progressivebydesign
Oct 2012
#33
Agree with you...Nate needs to make some choices about the polls he keeps....
OldDem2012
Oct 2012
#9
however...there is a truism about rasmussen-(though its sometimes hard to find the proof)
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#19
I'd like to offer a correction to that statement which I believe is significant.
gkhouston
Oct 2012
#41
NO WE DON"t==there are 4 to 8 brand new companies that only started after aggregates blocked Ras
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#55
Obama is now where he was before the debate. Mitt & Glove gained nothing but statistical noise
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#59
Who was better? Willie Mays or Derek Jeter? I rest my case. (Willie of course).
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#61
As I stated clearly before Nate's model was designed based on baseball which had no
grantcart
Oct 2012
#106
If you are not aware of the fact that in 2008 that there was the most extensive primary campaign in
grantcart
Oct 2012
#110
yes conversations are going on by other DUers. We expect something to be ublished by Thus.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#24
It is a drawback that he is strictly a numbers guy & admitted that he doesn't like politics
Lex
Oct 2012
#46
YOu heard that Rob Portman was talking today about Romney doing it without Ohio didn't you?
graham4anything
Oct 2012
#77
I'd like to see a Michael Moore exposé on the corruption and pundit-abuse of polling.
anAustralianobserver
Oct 2012
#86
The GOP is trying to make it look close. They want to steal the election without having a revolution
judesedit
Oct 2012
#100
But seldom is it an outright fraud by known con people with previous citations by the FCC.
grantcart
Oct 2012
#107