Back-of-the-envelope Delta variant math

[Shermann]

11. Exactly

There is an alternative hypothesis to R-naught 1.4, however. That is that the R-naught of Delta is below 1 in this country, and any small outbreaks will burn out instead of spread. The observed increase in cases is due to fresh infusions of Delta virus from other countries where it is indeed growing exponentially.

That may be optimistic, however. The UK seems to be experiencing the beginning of an exponential resurgence.

So even if we are vaccinated, there may be lockdowns in our future due to the spread through the unvaccinated.