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BannonsLiver

(20,452 posts)

16. No, I had it just right.

Mon Jul 5, 2021, 07:05 PM

Jul 2021

It’s not gloomy and doomy enough so the usual folks are trying to pick at it. Have seen this movie many many times before.

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The UK currently has 1,657,270 positive cases of COVID-19 [View all] Yavin4 Jul 2021 OP

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they're not testing random samples of the population, are they? RockRaven Jul 2021 #1

They're doing over 7 million tests a week Yavin4 Jul 2021 #3

The large size of the sample doesn't fix the selection bias problem. RockRaven Jul 2021 #5

I don't have insight into who or how their tests are done. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author BannonsLiver Jul 2021 #9

The opposite, actually. RockRaven Jul 2021 #13

No, I had it just right. BannonsLiver Jul 2021 #16

Not when the large sample is selected in a non-random manner. The size does not make it RockRaven Jul 2021 #12

I understand sampling bias. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #18

Obviously, you don't. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #31

The UK has conducted over 200 million tests. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #34

You are still missing the difference between size of sample, Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #37

And that is precisely why you can't extrapolate. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #20

I have been tracking Russia and the UK BigmanPigman Jul 2021 #2

Yep. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #4

Except Sputnik V... nt Shermann Jul 2021 #11

What about the US? ecstatic Jul 2021 #6

People generally test when there is a reason to test. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #7

7 million people? Yavin4 Jul 2021 #10

A representative sample must still proportionately mirror the population. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #17

It's like extrapolating STD positivity rates to the general population NickB79 Jul 2021 #19

Perfect example. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #22

You are correct, but it's not the same as extrapolating STD positivity rates. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #29

They test over 1 million people a day. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #21

Quantity means next to NOTHING Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #25

You are making assumptions without any evidence or facts. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #28

You are the one asserting a number that cannot be supported Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #30

When you talk about 7 million and not 700 Tribetime Jul 2021 #32

Quantity only alters the need for representation Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #33

The UK leads all of Europe in the number of tests done. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #35

Completely irrelevant - Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #38

Numerous people in this thread simply do not understand basic statistics. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #43

No; schools do a lot of regular tests, and so do care homes and hospitals muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #45

Schools, care homes, people attending Wimbeldon, people traveling abroad, people coming home Yavin4 Jul 2021 #48

Wrong. I think you are now winding us up, but it isn't funny. muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #54

You are the one who does not understand basic statistics, Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #46

You need to show me where the bias is in the sample. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #47

A sample is presumed to be biased, Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #50

There's a historic example for this BGBD Jul 2021 #36

Yup. But that point isn't getting across, for some reason. n/t Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #39

Election sampling is completely different Yavin4 Jul 2021 #42

Then explain the mix - Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #51

In the well vaccinated Seattle area, cases are dropping ismnotwasm Jul 2021 #14

Probably already said Dave says Jul 2021 #15

Many sick are getting tested IbogaProject Jul 2021 #23

People in the UK get tested for a variety of reasons. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #26

At that rate, the entire nation would be infected in 40 days NickB79 Jul 2021 #24

Not quite. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #27

From the Office for National Statistics, it's about 257,000 at 26th June muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #40

Please show me evidence that the 7 million tests per week were NOT at random. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #41

Sure, though everyone has already explained that tests are mostly done for a purpose muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #44

Again, I'm using your governments official daily reports which when they support the groupthink here Yavin4 Jul 2021 #49

The point is that you are making an unjustified assumption that all the people tested muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #53

I got pretty darn close just estimating the testing mix and estimated positivity within the groups Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #52

Fine. I will use your estimate of 600K positive cases Yavin4 Jul 2021 #55