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muriel_volestrangler

(105,933 posts)

40. From the Office for National Statistics, it's about 257,000 at 26th June

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 03:50 AM

Jul 2021

As many have pointed out, a large number (in fact, most) of the tests are not 'random', so your calculations in the OP do not produce a meaningful figure. However, the Office for National Statistics does use its expertise and knowledge of how the tests are done to produce a proper figure. The latest result is here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2july2021

There is also a study that does sample people in England truly at random - 'REACT' (I took part in this a few months ago, and didn't have covid). This reports every month, and its last one was for samples taken from 20th May to 7th June.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/224113/coronavirus-infections-rising-exponentially-england-react/

The rate for England then was 1 in 670; that's about 85,000, and might be 100,000 for the whole of the UK. The ONS figures are for up to 26th June. New cases went from about 5,000 to 12,000 from 7th to 26th June, so the increase from 100,000 to 257,000 in the same time looks about right. The latest new cases figure is 25,000, and if that rate of growth applied to the total, then about 535,000 in the UK have covid at the moment.

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The UK currently has 1,657,270 positive cases of COVID-19 [View all] Yavin4 Jul 2021 OP

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they're not testing random samples of the population, are they? RockRaven Jul 2021 #1

They're doing over 7 million tests a week Yavin4 Jul 2021 #3

The large size of the sample doesn't fix the selection bias problem. RockRaven Jul 2021 #5

I don't have insight into who or how their tests are done. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author BannonsLiver Jul 2021 #9

The opposite, actually. RockRaven Jul 2021 #13

No, I had it just right. BannonsLiver Jul 2021 #16

Not when the large sample is selected in a non-random manner. The size does not make it RockRaven Jul 2021 #12

I understand sampling bias. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #18

Obviously, you don't. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #31

The UK has conducted over 200 million tests. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #34

You are still missing the difference between size of sample, Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #37

And that is precisely why you can't extrapolate. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #20

I have been tracking Russia and the UK BigmanPigman Jul 2021 #2

Yep. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #4

Except Sputnik V... nt Shermann Jul 2021 #11

What about the US? ecstatic Jul 2021 #6

People generally test when there is a reason to test. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #7

7 million people? Yavin4 Jul 2021 #10

A representative sample must still proportionately mirror the population. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #17

It's like extrapolating STD positivity rates to the general population NickB79 Jul 2021 #19

Perfect example. Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #22

You are correct, but it's not the same as extrapolating STD positivity rates. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #29

They test over 1 million people a day. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #21

Quantity means next to NOTHING Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #25

You are making assumptions without any evidence or facts. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #28

You are the one asserting a number that cannot be supported Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #30

When you talk about 7 million and not 700 Tribetime Jul 2021 #32

Quantity only alters the need for representation Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #33

The UK leads all of Europe in the number of tests done. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #35

Completely irrelevant - Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #38

Numerous people in this thread simply do not understand basic statistics. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #43

No; schools do a lot of regular tests, and so do care homes and hospitals muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #45

Schools, care homes, people attending Wimbeldon, people traveling abroad, people coming home Yavin4 Jul 2021 #48

Wrong. I think you are now winding us up, but it isn't funny. muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #54

You are the one who does not understand basic statistics, Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #46

You need to show me where the bias is in the sample. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #47

A sample is presumed to be biased, Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #50

There's a historic example for this BGBD Jul 2021 #36

Yup. But that point isn't getting across, for some reason. n/t Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #39

Election sampling is completely different Yavin4 Jul 2021 #42

Then explain the mix - Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #51

In the well vaccinated Seattle area, cases are dropping ismnotwasm Jul 2021 #14

Probably already said Dave says Jul 2021 #15

Many sick are getting tested IbogaProject Jul 2021 #23

People in the UK get tested for a variety of reasons. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #26

At that rate, the entire nation would be infected in 40 days NickB79 Jul 2021 #24

Not quite. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #27

From the Office for National Statistics, it's about 257,000 at 26th June muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #40

Please show me evidence that the 7 million tests per week were NOT at random. Yavin4 Jul 2021 #41

Sure, though everyone has already explained that tests are mostly done for a purpose muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #44

Again, I'm using your governments official daily reports which when they support the groupthink here Yavin4 Jul 2021 #49

The point is that you are making an unjustified assumption that all the people tested muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #53

I got pretty darn close just estimating the testing mix and estimated positivity within the groups Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #52

Fine. I will use your estimate of 600K positive cases Yavin4 Jul 2021 #55