General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Lying by Omission about Break-Thru Covid-19 Infections? [View all]Celerity
(53,483 posts)Vaccine effectiveness is based off viable exposure. If you moved 10,000 unvaxxed, COVID negative people to a deserted island that was able to sustain their lives indefinitely without any outside interactions with any living entity capable of transmission there would be no exposure.
If you took that same 10,000 people, fully vaxxed them with Pfizer, and then exposed every single one of them to Delta to a viable transmission level, roughly 2,000 would catch the infection.
Effectiveness is based off prevention of transmission, or symptomatic illness, or severe illness, or ICU level illness or death, etc, depending on what you are measuring, if you are exposed.
It is impossible to calculate the odds for an individual being exposed during a pandemic (unless they are isolated utterly for the entire time). Too many variables.