Lying by Omission about Break-Thru Covid-19 Infections?

[bluewater]

119. Here's a nice article stating how much more contagious the delta variant is:

Here's a nice article stating how much more contagious the delta variant is:

Practically speaking

We asked Gounder what this could mean for everyday life: Would an unmasked, unvaccinated person catch the delta variant if they merely walked by someone with the delta variant in the grocery aisle?

"The probability of them catching it is equivalent to what it would have been with the same scenario x 15 minutes early in the pandemic," Gounder told PolitiFact. "That wasn’t 100%. This isn’t 100%. But 15 minutes then is equivalent to 1 second now."

It’s difficult to quantify someone’s chances of catching COVID-19 in a one-second interaction, Gounder said. Factors include ventilation levels in various indoor settings.

Gounder also pointed to a similar takeaway by Kimberly Prather, an atmospheric chemist at UC San Diego, calling the possibility of fleeting exposure leading to a delta variant infection "certainly possible."

We ran the same grocery store scenario by Prather: Would one second be all it takes for an unmasked and unvaccinated person to catch the delta variant?

"No, that is not the case," Prather said." There are many factors (for each individual) that affect how much it takes for someone to ‘catch delta.’ For example some people have much stronger immune systems, which will fight off a certain level of virus. Others are more vulnerable."

Prather said her most important message is that if everyone is wearing masks, the chance of infection plummets.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jul/28/how-contagious-delta-variant-it-isnt-easy-quantify/

Good lord, it's as contagious as chicken pox. Experts feel a ONE SECOND exposure might be enough to become infected.

Again, good lord. The article continues...

Scientists studying the virus agree that the delta variant is more contagious than COVID-19 was earlier in the pandemic, but it’s tricky to pinpoint how likely it is that an unvaccinated person will catch it, including through brief exposure.

Their opinions may evolve as more research is performed.

In 2020, scientists warned that the CDC’s guidance about exposure in 15 minutes was not a magic number, and that someone could catch the disease in less than 15 minutes.

Jing Lu, one of the authors of the China study, told us that for the delta variant the "most quick transmission event we identified from epidemiological investigation is ~15 seconds."

But scientists we spoke with had varying opinions about extrapolating from the study about how much exposure time would lead to someone getting infected. Different factors affect whether someone gets infected including the ventilation of indoor spaces, peoples’ different immune systems, and peoples’ individual behavior, including whether they wear a mask.

The dynamics of infection don’t allow us to extrapolate perfectly from the data in the preprint study about the odds of getting infected within a certain amount of time of exposure, said Stephen Kissler, a postdoctoral fellow in the department of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard.

Kissler said it’s possible someone could get infected in one second, but he said it's unlikely someone will catch delta by just passing someone in the supermarket. "If you were to calibrate your risk before in your day-to-day life, you know basically that you are twice as likely to get infected with SARS-CoV-2 as you were before," Kissler said.

John Moore, professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College, said there are several emerging reports "on the grapevine" that delta infections are associated with unusually high nasal viral load compared to earlier variants.

"Where there is a knowledge gap is whether there is a direct relationship between the amount of virus present on a nasal swab and the amount that is breathed/sneezed out," Moore said. Gounder’s "calculation is based on the premise that there is such a relationship, which seems reasonable," Moore said.

"But there are unknowns on the numbers," Moore said. "Is there truly 1,000-fold more virus shed from delta-infected people? Is the CDC estimate of 15 minutes truly precise? I can’t answer those questions with certainty."

Medical experts F. Perry Wilson, Ben Cowling, and Donald K. Milton essentially agreed.

I think we have strayed far enough, perhaps way too far lol, from the original topic of my OP post, namely the news sources need to stop citing misleading statistics. Especially in light of the fact that a ONE SECOND exposure to the delta variant could infect you.

Dinner calls! I hope you enjoy your evening.