and that includes stadiums AND "fairs". So the one big variable at events such as that are whether people are vaccinated or not and/or how many are infected attending them (and how much viral load they have). And that will be different in every situation.
And as a note, as a scientist myself, "science" is really all "conjecture" - even with data.
Scientists CAN and often WILL disagree with the interpretations of the same set of facts. THAT is how it works and that is what goes on in real life. You might consider someone's interpretation as "conjecture" but ALL interpretations are "conjecture".