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zevonseas

(12 posts)

9. Don't pay too much attention to polls that aren't exclusively considered "likely voters"

Reply to progressivebydesign (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 05:35 PM

Oct 2012

In my mind, the best barometer of where the President stands is with "likely voters". I think President Obama needs a minimum of a 4-6 point average poll margin (of likely voters) in the key swing states to win re-election. The trend over the past 20 years or so is that Republican "likely voters" actually get out to vote better than the "likely" Democrats... by about a 4-6 point margin.

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WTF Yahoo? A Headline article just appeared then vanished saying Romney leads Electoral votes TODAY. [View all] progressivebydesign Oct 2012 OP

Here is the story Live and Learn Oct 2012 #1

Thanks. My point is that it was a headline story, then disappeared instantly. nt progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #5

I know, it can be very frustrating. nt Live and Learn Oct 2012 #7

Romney leads in "sure" electoral votes without toss-ups kansasobama Oct 2012 #2

Romney is leading in the electoral college... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #3

That is what I thought. Just a momentary fad. nt Live and Learn Oct 2012 #4

So basically it's worthless. Couldn't understand the point of a huge headline like that... progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #6

I used to swear by RPC demwing Oct 2012 #8

Don't pay too much attention to polls that aren't exclusively considered "likely voters" zevonseas Oct 2012 #9

It's right wing outlet november3rd Oct 2012 #10