Why the math is so hard for Romney in Nevada [View all]

[RandySF]

As early voting begins today, and Republicans coninue to spin their tales of voter contacts, let me show you just how difficult Mitt Romney's task is here in Nevada.

Let's suppose Republicans have a 5 percentage point turnout edge over Democrats (85 percent to 80 percent) once all the votes are counted and that "other" voters turn out at an 80 percent clip (that may be high). Let's suppose 85 percent of each base votes for the nominee (it's likely to be closer to 90 percent) and let's suppose the third-party candidates get 3 percent of the vote (it's unlikely to be much higher, based on history). That's a fairly conservative model.

Because of the Democrats' registration edge -- 90,000 statewide -- that means Romney would have to win all of those remaining voters by about 13 percent.

And guess what? No credible poll is showing that. Indeed, not one public poll has shown anything close to that -- even GOP-skewed Rasmussen, which had a 39-36, GOP sample (nearly impossible), had Obama up by 9 among indies. Many polls show Obama up among unaffiliated voters.

If Obama gets 90 percent of the Democratic base, and Romney does the same, the Republican would need a 15 percent win among remaining voters.


http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/why-math-so-hard-romney-nevada#.UIMh2X1U7LM